Expert prediction
UFC Fight Night 224: Holm vs. Bueno Silva Predictions, Fight Card, and Odds (Jul 15)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- Forty-one-year-old Holly Holm favored to beat Mayra Bueno Silva in the UFC Vegas 77 main event.
- Walt Harris to end his horrible run with a win over Josh Parisian on July 15.
- Ottman Azaitar and Chelsea Chandler set to upset the UFC odds in Vegas.
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva (a.k.a. UFC on ESPN 49 or UFC Vegas 77) is on the program on Saturday, July 15, 2023, at UFC Apex in Vegas.
The event is headlined by the women’s bantamweight fight between former champ Holly Holm and Mayra Bueno Silva, with the co-main event being the Albert Duraev vs. Park Jun-Yong middleweight fight.
In addition to those, there are another four interesting bouts on the main card, all of which we’re going to analyze in this UFC on ESPN 49 prediction piece. So, let’s start!
Schedule and How to Watch
- Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
- When: Saturday, July 15, 2023, at 10 p.m ET
- How to Watch: ESPN/ESPN+
UFC on ESPN 49 Predictions
Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Holly Holm | |
| Mayra Bueno Silva |
Holly Holm (15-6) is probably the best boxer in women’s mixed martial arts, who’s got eight wins by KO/TKO in her portfolio. She’s got no submission wins, but this doesn’t mean she’s not a good grappler. “The Preacher’s Daughter” is a BJJ blue belt, who’s been using her grappling skills mostly for defending.
Holm’s also been great wrestling-wise, especially over the last couple of years. In the last two fights that she won, we saw her make a total of nine takedowns while suffering zero.
We think she’s superior to Mayra Bueno Silva in practically all aspects of MMA. The only thing that’s going against her is the fact that she’s 10 years older than her opponent. Holm is turning 42 later this year, but age is just a number in her case. The proof that she still has a fantastic engine in her is that she spent a total of 80 minutes inside the Octagon in her last four fights.
Prediction:
Albert Duraev vs. Jun Yong Park
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Albert Duraev | |
| Jun Yong Park |
These two are very similar fighters, with very similar MMA records. Albert Duraev is 16-4 with just one loss since the start of the decade, while Jun Yong Park is 16-5, also with only one defeat in the 2020s.
They even have a similar build, both being roughly 6 feet tall, weighing 185 pounds, and having a low center of gravity. Because they’re kind of chunky, it’s a real challenge to take them down. Both are decent when it comes to takedown defense, each making over 2.0 TDs per fight on average.
READ ALSO: Anthony Joshua vs Dillian Whyte Prediction, Preview, and Odds (Aug 12)
Striking-wise, it’s the Korean fighter who has the advantage. He lands more strikes than Duraev, although they’re not too powerful, which explains why he hasn’t won by KO/TKO since 2018. The Chechen fighter, on the other hand, seems susceptible to KOs, with all four of his losses happening this way.
We can’t say for certain that Yong Park is going to turn the light off for Duraev, but we do think “The Iron Turtle” will land just enough strikes to win over the judges’ affection.
Prediction:
Walt Harris vs. Josh Parisian
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Walt Harris | |
| Josh Parisian |
Walt Harris lost each of his last three fights, with each loss happening by TKO. It sounds bad, but there’s an explanation for that. The fighters he fought are elite – Alistair Overeem, Alexander Volkov, and Marcin Tybura.
Each of those is way better than his next opponent, who just hasn’t fought an opponent of Harris’s caliber. We think it’s time for Harris to rise from the ashes!
Prediction:
Norma Dumont vs. Chelsea Chandler
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Norma Dumont | |
| Chelsea Chandler |
Norma Dumont is a great kickboxer, which is why it’s kind of surprising that she’s still without a single win by KO/TKO in her professional MMA career. She’s 9-2 overall, with seven wins by decision. It’s because she fights smart, always looking to outstrike her opponents. So far, it’s worked fine for her, but will this work against Chelsea Chandler?
Dumont’s opponent is a former Invicta star, who’s 5-0 since losing on her professional debut in 2018. Chandler is a well-rounded fighter with fast hands and amazing grappling skills. This is no surprise given that she’s a member of Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu team.
On her UFC debut, she destroyed Jilija Stoliarenko by TKO in round 1, which earned her a spot in the top 15 women’s featherweights in the UFC. We think she’s a very dangerous fighter who could upset the UFC on ESPN+ 82 odds on Saturday.
Prediction:
Ottman Azaitar vs. Francisco Prado
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ottman Azaitar | +100 |
| Francisco Prado | -130 |
Ottman Azaitar’s 13-win run ended last November when he got KO-ed by Matt Frevola in round 1. It was a soul-crushing defeat, but he’s had over seven months to work on his comeback. On July 15, he’ll try to bounce back to the winning track against Francisco Prado.
The Argentina fighter is favored to beat Azaitar, but we don’t have much confidence in him. The thing is that Prado’s only fought one in the UFC, and he lost to Jamie Mullarkey on his debut. Before that, he only fought South American opponents, most of whom had horrible records before stepping into the cage with him.
Prediction:
Terrance McKinney vs. Nazim Sadykhov
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | |
| Nazim Sadykhov |
Terrance McKinney is 13-5 with none of his fights ever going to distance. Four of his losses happened by KO/TKO, which is what we suspect might happen on July 15 as well. The thing is that he’s squaring off against a fantastic boxer who’s 8-1 overall with six wins by KO/TKO.
Nazim Sadykhov is also great when it comes to wrestling and grappling, although he uses those skills primarily for defense.
Prediction:
MMA
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