Expert prediction
UFC Sao Paulo Preview: Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis Prediction, Odds, and Picks (Nov 4)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- Jailton Almeida has only got punched twice in his last five UFC fights.
- Derrick Lewis holds the UFC record for the most KO/TKO wins.
- Almeida lands 6.40 TDs per 15 minutes; Lewis’s TD defense is 52%.
Jailton Almeida got hit only twice in total in the five UFC fights he’s fought so far. But Derrick Lewis doesn’t need to hit him too many times. The UFC record-holder for most KO wins only needs one punch to finish him. Still, judging by the UFC Sao Paulo odds, that’s unlikely to happen. Instead, betting odds suggest the Brazilian fighter is going to have an easy job on November 4.
How to Watch
- When: Saturday, November 4, 2023, at 11:00 p.m ET
- Where: Ginasio do Ibirapuera, Sao Paulo, Brazil
- How to Watch: ESPN+
Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | |
| Derrick Lewis |
Fight Preview
Jailton Almeida’s record is 19-2, with those two losses happening in the early days of his career. Actually, the guy has won every single one of his last 14 MMA fights. An equally impressive fact is that each of those happened by a finish.
This includes the five UFC fights he’s fought so far, three of which saw him get the Performance of the Night bonus. In his most recent trip to the Octagon, Almeida defeated Jairzinho Rozenstruik by submission in round 1.
This is important because Rozenstruik isn’t too dissimilar a fighter to Lewis. He too is a powerful striker, but he couldn’t land any kicks or punches in the fight with Almeida. Instead, the Brazilian took him down on the second attempt.
Should this worry Lewis? We think it should. His takedown defense isn’t great (52%), while Almeida’s landing 6.40 TDs per fight on average. That’s a higher number than any of Lewis’s previous opponents in the UFC.
Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis Prediction
The UFC Sao Paulo odds suggest there’s no way Almeida’s losing this fight. Almeida’s odds are -450, meaning that he’s expected to get the job done with no major problems. We agree. We think he’s going to do pretty much the same as in the fight with Jairzinho. He’s going to take Lewis down and finish him.
Free Pick:
MMA
More Predictions
UFC Vegas 123 Predictions: Moicano vs Nolan Picks, Odds and Best Bet
Best bet: Tom Nolan moneyline (-120) Bet UFC Vegas 123 at BetOnline Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan headline UFC Vegas 123 this Saturday in a lightweight matchup with plenty on the line. Moicano is fighting to stay relevant in the division, while Nolan is chasing a breakthrough win and a place in the rankings. You […]
UFC 332: Full Main Card Picks, Odds & Props (Oct 3)
It’s UFC 332 week at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City. A vacant women’s flyweight title is on the line, along with several high-stakes main card matchups. Here is your full breakdown, plus expert UFC picks, odds, and prop bets for Saturday’s event. How to Watch UFC 332 Main Card Preview Main Event: Natalia […]
UFC: Silva vs. Delgado Preview, Odds, Picks (Sep 12)
Delgado steps into his first UFC main event on short notice following Yair Rodríguez’s injury withdrawal. He is a massive underdog against Jean Silva, though Silva prepared for a completely different rival. Here is are more MMA Odds. How to Watch Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado Odds Fighter Odds Silva -425 Delgado +325 Fight Preview […]
UFC Paris: Full Main Card Picks, Odds & Props
The UFC returns to the Accor Arena for its fifth annual trip to Paris. The card features 14 fights, but we are focusing on the main card, headlined by lightweight fireworks and top French talent. Here are the full betting breakdowns, UFC Paris odds, and top picks for the main card lineup. How to Watch […]
UFC Shanghai Predictions, Odds & Full Fight Card Picks
It’s UFC Shanghai on the menu, with several high-stakes matchups on the main card. We are here to deliver some top-notch UFC picks, with props and plenty of other valuable information. How to Watch UFC Shanghai Main Card Preview Main Event: Umar Nurmagomedov (20-1) vs. Song Yadong (23-9-1) Fighter Odds Nurmagomedov -530 Yadong +375 Co-Main […]