Expert prediction
UFC Fight Night 232 Preview: Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig Prediction, Odds, and Picks (Nov 18)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- The UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig headliner is a duel between two grappling experts with 26 wins by submission between them.
- Brendan Allen’s odds are -360, suggesting that he should have a relatively easy job on Saturday, November 18.
- Paul Craig does great against favorites, with one of his best performances being a win over Magomed Ankalaev when he was a +500 underdog.
From New York, the UFC is coming back to Vegas. UFC Apex is the location of the next event on the UFC calendar. The event in question is UFC Fight Night 232 a.k.a. UFC on ESPN+ 90 or even UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig after its headliner.
The main event of the evening – Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig – is the fight we’re going to analyze in this prediction piece. Keep reading to learn about UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig odds, fighter stats, and more, as well as to see our top pick for the November 18 fight.
How to Watch
- When: Saturday, November 18, 2023, at 10:00 p.m ET
- Where: UFC Apex
- How to Watch: ESPN+
Odds
| Fighter Odds | Odds |
|---|---|
| Brendan Allen | |
| Paul Craig |
Fight Preview
Our Allen vs. Craig prediction is that this is going to be one hell of a fight, which might easily win the UFC Fight of the Night award. The No. 1 reason for this is that both fighters are great finishers, each with 13 wins by submission.
Brendan Allen is 22-5 overall, which makes his submission-to-win ratio 59.09%. He’s riding on a 5-0 win streak, which saw him win four fights by submission (rear-naked choke, to be precise).
When it comes to his losses, the two most recent ones happened by TKO – to Chris Curtis and Sean Strickland. Before that, he lost two times by decision, while his first career loss happened by submission (back in 2016).
He’s fighting against Paul Craig, who’s 17-6-1 with 76.47% of his wins happening by submission. “Bearjew” lost four fights by KO/TKO, one by decision, and one by submission. His only loss by submission happened to Jimmy Crute (on Crute’s UFC debut) in 2018.
When it comes to his wins, a couple of them happened against some real elite fighters. As a light Heavyweight fighter, the Scotsman defeated the former champ Jamahal Hill – he’s the only man to do it.
Craig is also the only fighter ever to beat the former title contender Magomed Ankalaev. He also defeated Nikita Krylov, Mauricio Rua, and a few other elite 205lb fighters.
When it comes to the UFC Middleweight Division, Paul has only fought one fight. It happened last July when he destroyed Andre Muniz with elbow punches (TKO), earning himself his eight UFC Performance of the Night bonus along the way.
Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig Prediction
The UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig odds see the American fighter as a huge -360 favorite. However, you should know that Craig thrives when he’s the underdog. In each of the last three fights he won, he was seen as a plus-money underdog with his odds being at least +160.
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Ahead of the November 18 fight, Craig’s UFC odds are +295, the highest number since the fight with Ankalaev, when his odds were as long as +500 at some betting sites. Craig was able to beat the highly favored Ankalaev and we believe he can do the same to Allen.
Free Pick:
MMA
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