Expert prediction
UFC Vegas 103: Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev Preview, Odds, Prediction
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- Manel Kape is a hell of a striker, but he doesn’t like fighting grapplers.
- Asu Almabayev is an expert grappler who loves getting in the clinch.
UFC Vegas 103 is headlined by an exciting flyweight clash between two fighters with championship ambitions. Manel Kape is one of the best strikers in the division, while Asu Almabayev is among the best grapplers in the UFC. Which fighting style will prevail next Saturday?
How to Watch
- Where: UFC Apex in Vegas
- When: Saturday, March 1, 10 pm ET
- How to Watch: ESPN+
Kape vs. Almabayev Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Manel Kape | -240 |
| Asu Almabayev | +205 |
Fight Preview
Manel Kape (20-7) is a battle-tested finisher with a wealth of top-tier experience. Since stepping into the UFC octagon in 2021, he’s compiled a 5-3 record, with his only setbacks being close decision losses to elite foes Alexandre Pantoja, Matheus Nicolau, and Muhammad Mokaev.
His recent TKO triumph over Bruno Gustavo da Silva highlighted his devastating striking ability, while his past RIZIN title-winning knockout of Kai Asakura cements his elite status. Competing in Las Vegas, his home base, also means he’ll be fresh, free from the wear of travel.
All these things explain why UFC Vegas 103 odds are favoring this guy. There are, however, a few things that go in favor of Kape’s opponent.
First of all, Asu Almabayev (21-2) is a grappling maestro, boasting nine submission victories – and Kape tends to do poorly against such fighters.
Further, Almabayev’s airtight striking defense keeps him elusive, soaking up a mere 13.5 kicks and punches per UFC bout.
He also tends to do very well in the clinch, stopping his opponents from causing much damage with their striking.
Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev Prediction
Almabayev’s been unbeatable for nearly eight years, but he’s yet to tangle with a striker as lethal as Kape. Kape’s sharp striking and experience against high-caliber opponents make him the betting favorite in the UFC Vegas 103 showdown. However, we think oddsmakers are wrong.
In his last fight, Almabayev outmaneuvered Matheus Nicolau, dominating in the clinch to secure a decision. Deploying that same smothering approach could spell trouble for Kape.
Expect this clash to stretch the full 25 minutes, likely tipping the scales in Almabayev’s favor for the victory.
Free Pick:
- Asu Almabayev
MMA
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