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Expert prediction

UFC 316: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer Preview, Odds, Prediction

  • Annie Adkins
  • May 23, 2025 at 8:26 AM EDT

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

  • Joe Pyfer is the man who broke Francis Ngannou’s punch record.
  • Kelvin Gastelum is a seasoned veteran who wants to make himself relevant again.
  • UFC 316 odds heavily favor Pyffer, but our prediction is that a surprise is on the way.

Last year, Joe Pyfer stepped up to the punch machine and delivered a ridiculous shot that registered 170,218 units, which is about 32% harder than Francis Ngannou’s best.

While the PowerKube machine isn’t exactly gospel in combat sports, it still shows one thing clearly: Pyfer hits like a truck. Just ask Marc-André Barriault and he’ll tell you it’s true – he got KO-ed by Pyfer in Round 1 last year.

In fact, 9 of Pyfer’s 13 wins have come by knockout. But now he’s up against Kelvin Gastelum, a guy who’s never been knocked out.


How to Watch

  • Where: Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey
  • When: Saturday, June 7, 10 pm ET
  • How to Watch: PPV

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer Odds

FighterOdds
Kelvin Gastelum+300
Joe Pyfer-400

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer Preview

Kelvin Gastelum (19-9-1) is still in his early 30s, but this guy’s already stood toe-to-toe with some of the most dangerous strikers in the history of the UFC Middleweight Division – Israel Adesanya, Robert Whittaker, Vitor Belfort, Michael Bisping, and so on.

Gastelum’s not just tough; he’s got real grappling chops too. He’s a former NCAA wrestler and BJJ black belt, who also has a great gas tank. On top of everything, he also has a huge motivation to win on June 6.

For Gastelum, this fight at UFC 316 means everything. A win would mark his first back-to-back victories since 2018. But it’s not just about momentum, there’s bad blood here as well.

The original Gastelum vs. Pyfer matchup was scrapped last minute in March when Pyfer pulled out. The reason was illness, despite having just said in an interview that he was “the healthiest he’s ever been.”

READ ALSO: UFC 316: Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison Preview, Odds, Prediction

Then he went on a vulgar rant about Mexico, saying he had violent diarrhea and hit the bathroom over 10 times the night before because of food poisoning.

Gastelum, proud of his Mexican roots, didn’t take that lightly – he wants to make Pyfer regret his comments.


Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer Prediction

UFC 316 betting odds are heavily in favor of Pyfer, but our pick is just the opposite. We’re backing Gastelum to pull off an upset. Sure, Pyfer’s looked great in the Octagon in the last couple of fights, but Gastelum is someone who’s fought – and defeated – much tougher opponents.

We think it’s time for Gastelum’s resurgence to begin, and a great starting point is UFC 316.

Free Pick:

  • Kelvin Gastelum

MMA

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