Expert prediction
UFC Perth: Carlos Ulberg vs. Dominick Reyes Preview, Odds, Prediction (Sep 27)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- Ulberg vs. Reyes is the main event of UFC Perth (a.k.a., UFC Fight Night 260 or UFC on ESPN+ 118)
- UFC Perth odds favor Carlos Ulberg to get his 9th win in a row — he’s priced at -165 at BetOnline.
- Dominick Reyes has a chance to create the biggest comeback story in the history of the UFC.
After going 12-0, Dominick Reyes got a shot at the UFC Light Heavyweight title in 2020. The trouble was that he squared off against the GOAT of MMA, Jon Jones. It was a close fight — probably the toughest in Jones’ career — but he beat Reyes by unanimous decision.
And that’s where the troubles started for “The Devastator.” He went on to lose the next three fights, after which he decided to take an almost 2-year break. But after coming back in 2024, he’s 3-0, and is looking for another victory, which could put him into the championship conversation.
The problem is that he’s taking on Carlos Ulberg at UFC Perth on September 28, and this guy means business. He’s riding on an 8-win wave, and based on MMA odds, he’s going to win again.
How to Watch
- Where: RAC Arena in Perth, Australia
- When: Saturday, September 27, at 10 p.m. ET
- How to Watch: ESPN+
Carlos Ulberg vs. Dominick Reyes Odds
Carlos Ulberg vs. Dominick Reyes Preview
Carlos Ulberg is a New Zealand-based fighter who’s 12-1 overall in professional MMA. Before switching completely to mixed martial arts, he was a pro kickboxer with a 19-2 record.
Knowing this, it’s clear what his strongest weapon is: striking. This guy lands 6.77 significant strikes a minute, which is the highest average among the active fighters in the UFC Light Heavyweight Division.
He’s quick-handed and his strikes are powerful, the evidence being that 7 of his 12 MMA wins happened by KO/TKO. In pro kickboxing, he’s 12-for-19.
Ulberg hits his opponents a lot, but he also gets hit plenty. He absorbs 4.21 strikes per 60 seconds on average, which could be a problem against such a precise striker as Dominic Reyes.
The thing is that Dom needs just one clear punch to get a KO/TKO. In his most recent fight, he KO-ed Nikita Krylov in R1 after landing just 8 shots.
Further, in his first fight after a 2-year hiatus, he knocked Dustin Jacoby down twice with just 20 strikes in total, before getting a KO win.
He also fought Anthony Smith in between those two fights. Against “Lionheart,” he won by TKO after landing 121 shots — the highest in his UFC career.
Carlos Ulberg vs. Dominick Reyes Prediction
If Dominick Reyes wins this, we could see him get another shot at the title in 2025 — and this could happen at the White House!
Reyes realizes how much is at stake, so you can be 100% certain that he’s going to take this fight seriously. This is his biggest challenge since the Jon Jones fight, but this time around, we think he’ll be the one with his fist raised high after the fight.
Free Pick:
MMA
More Predictions
UFC Vegas 123 Predictions: Moicano vs Nolan Picks, Odds and Best Bet
Best bet: Tom Nolan moneyline (-120) Bet UFC Vegas 123 at BetOnline Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan headline UFC Vegas 123 this Saturday in a lightweight matchup with plenty on the line. Moicano is fighting to stay relevant in the division, while Nolan is chasing a breakthrough win and a place in the rankings. You […]
UFC 332: Full Main Card Picks, Odds & Props (Oct 3)
It’s UFC 332 week at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City. A vacant women’s flyweight title is on the line, along with several high-stakes main card matchups. Here is your full breakdown, plus expert UFC picks, odds, and prop bets for Saturday’s event. How to Watch UFC 332 Main Card Preview Main Event: Natalia […]
UFC: Silva vs. Delgado Preview, Odds, Picks (Sep 12)
Delgado steps into his first UFC main event on short notice following Yair Rodríguez’s injury withdrawal. He is a massive underdog against Jean Silva, though Silva prepared for a completely different rival. Here is are more MMA Odds. How to Watch Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado Odds Fighter Odds Silva -425 Delgado +325 Fight Preview […]
UFC Paris: Full Main Card Picks, Odds & Props
The UFC returns to the Accor Arena for its fifth annual trip to Paris. The card features 14 fights, but we are focusing on the main card, headlined by lightweight fireworks and top French talent. Here are the full betting breakdowns, UFC Paris odds, and top picks for the main card lineup. How to Watch […]
UFC Shanghai Predictions, Odds & Full Fight Card Picks
It’s UFC Shanghai on the menu, with several high-stakes matchups on the main card. We are here to deliver some top-notch UFC picks, with props and plenty of other valuable information. How to Watch UFC Shanghai Main Card Preview Main Event: Umar Nurmagomedov (20-1) vs. Song Yadong (23-9-1) Fighter Odds Nurmagomedov -530 Yadong +375 Co-Main […]