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Expert prediction

No. 1 Duke vs NC State Preview, Odds, Predictions (March 2)

  • Richard Pereira
  • Mar 2, 2026 at 2:33 PM EST

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

  • The Blue Devils are rolling with six consecutive wins.
  • The Wolfpack boast a solid 10-4 record at home this season.
  • This marks the 259th all-time matchup between the two ACC squads.

The second contest featuring a ranked squad on the March 2 slate will commence at the ACC level as the NC State Wolfpack host the No. 1 Duke Blue Devils. The visitors come out as the dominant favorite, showing that the hosts have their work cut out for them throughout the matchup.

How to Watch

  • When: Monday, March 2, 7 pm ET
  • Where: Lenovo Center, Raleigh, North Carolina
  • How to Watch: ESPN

NCAA Matchup Odds & Lines

TeamOddsSpreadTotals
Duke-108-9.5O148
NC State-112+9.5U148

Game Preview

The No. 1 Blue Devils (25-2, 13-1 ACC) maintain their hold over the top spot of the AP Top 25, dominating Notre Dame in convincing fashion. They are the top-rated defense in the nation, per KenPom. The team is also one of just two teams ranked in the top-six nationally in both offensive efficiency (127.9, 6th) and defensive efficiency (88.3, 1st) ratings, via KenPom. Cameron Boozer stands out as the seventh-leading scorer with 22.5 points per game and tops the ACC in rebounding (10.0 rpg), is eighth in steals (1.7 spg), 13th in assists (4.0 apg) and fourth in field goal percentage (.577).

The Wolfpack (19-10, 10-6 ACC) have taken steps back after being solid throughout conference play, losing four of their last six games. They lead the ACC and rank ninth nationally in turnover margin (+4.0). NC State is also 13th nationally with an ACC-best 3-point shooting percentage of 38.6%. Darrion Williams leads the unit with averages of 14.2 points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game. Meanwhile, Quadir Copeland tops the ACC and ranks 11th in the nation with 198 assists (6.8 apg) and is third in the ACC in steals (53).

Duke vs NC State Head-to-Head

The two programs have had 258 meetings in their history, and the result is 153-105 for the Blue Devils. The last matchup was in January 2025 when Duke won 74-64 at home.

Duke vs NC State Predictions

Duke is closing in on securing the ACC regular-season title outright. They have made their case as one of the best teams in the country, looking to push it to the national championship contender level. NC State will look to make dents to that case, having the ability to pull off upsets while boasting homecourt advantage. However, it will be a tall task for them if they can’t keep Cameron Boozer in check. Our betting pick here is the Blue Devils to defend a 9.5-point spread.

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