Expert prediction
UNLV vs San Diego State Preview, Odds, Predictions (March 6)
- Richard Pereira
- Mar 6, 2026 at 5:54 PM EST
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- The Rebels have been resilient on the road with a 6-5 record.
- The Aztecs boast a 13-2 record in their home games this season.
- This marks the 86th all-time matchup between the two MWC squads.
The Mountain West Conference will be present in the late hours of March 6 as the San Diego State Aztecs host the UNLV Rebels on Friday night. The former stands tall as the solid favorite, having stakes in the matchup as they are competing for the regular-season title.
How to Watch
- When: Friday, March 6, 10 pm ET
- Where: Viejas Arena, San Diego, California
- How to Watch: CBS Sports Network
NCAA Matchup Odds & Lines
| Team | Odds | Spread | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | -113 | +10 | O153 |
| San Diego State | -107 | -10 | U153 |
Game Preview
The Rebels (16-14, 11-8 MWC) find themselves in the bottom half of the conference standings despite having a decent record in league play. They are coming off back-to-back wins over Nevada and Utah State, hoping to end the regular season on a solid note. Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn (20.6 ppg, 1st in MW/22nd in NCAA), Kimani Hamilton (12.7 ppg) and Tyrin Jones (11.5 ppg) lead the attack that produces 80.0 points per game. Meanwhile, Fleming Jr. leads the team in rebounds at 6.2 rpg (5th in MW) and assists at 3.9 apg (6th in MW).
The Aztecs (19-10, 13-6 MWC) have had a solid campaign in conference play, being in the top half of the league standings. However, they suffered a dip after losing back-to-back games against New Mexico and Boise State. According to Kenpom, San Diego State’s defense ranks No. 1 in defensive efficiency, turnover percentage, two-point field goal percentage & block percentage and No. 2 in effective field goal percentage and No. 3 in steal percentage among Mountain West schools. Reese Dixon-Waters leads the offense with numbers of 13 points and 3.6 rebounds per game while making a team-high 128 3-pointers on a 35.9% clip.
UNLV vs San Diego State Head-to-Head
The two programs have had 85 meetings in their history, and the result is 45-40 for the Aztecs. The last matchup was in January this year when San Diego State won 82-71 on the road.
UNLV vs San Diego State Predictions
This matchup will garner attention as it impacts the picture of the Mountain West Tournament bracket. San Diego State and UNLV have performed well to clinch their respective spots. However, getting a favorable path to the championship game requires one of them to win this game to end conference play and confirm their place in the postseason. Our betting pick here is the Aztecs to defend a 10-point spread.
- Free NCAAB pick: San Diego State Aztecs -10
NCAAB
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