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Expert prediction

No. 5 Florida vs Kentucky Preview, Odds, Predictions (March 7)

  • Richard Pereira
  • Mar 7, 2026 at 2:12 PM EST

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

  • The Gators are rolling with a 10-game winning streak.
  • The Wildcats boast a 14-3 record in their home games this season.
  • This marks the 155th all-time matchup between the two SEC squads.

The college basketball world is set for a busy schedule throughout March 7, involving an SEC duel between the No. 5 Florida Gators and the Kentucky Wildcats. The former stands out as the solid favorite, meaning that the ranked visitors have their work cut out for them against their ranked hosts.

How to Watch

  • When: Saturday, March 7, 4 pm ET
  • Where: Rupp Arena, Lexington, Kentucky
  • How to Watch: ESPN

NCAA Matchup Odds & Lines

TeamOddsSpreadTotals
Florida-113-5.5O162
Kentucky-107+5.5U162

Game Preview

The No. 5 Gators (24-6, 15-2 SEC) have a firm grip on the SEC regular-season title, controlling the top spot in the standings ahead of their season finale. They have won their last 10 games, peaking at the right time ahead of the postseason. The Gators are second in offensive rebounding (41.4), but first on the defensive end (25.8), and rank No. 1 in the nation in rebounding margin at plus-14.8. Alex Condon led the way with 26 points, seven rebounds and three assists against the Georgia Bulldogs. Condon is averaging 22.0 points and shooting 57.7% from the floor over the last five games. Rueben Chinyelu, with 11 points and 16 boards, tied the program record with his 18th double-double.

Things haven’t been great for the Wildcats (19-11, 10-7 SEC) despite having a decent record in conference play. They won five of their first six SEC games, standing firm in the upper bracket of the conference standings. Kentucky has defended decently for the better part of the league this season (4th among SEC teams), have shot the 3-ball at 36% in league play and rebounded as the No. 4 SEC team on both ends. Otega Oweh leads the attack with averages of 17.9 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. Meanwhile, Collin Chander is one of the best 3-point shooters in the country at 44% (including 47.2 in SEC play).

Florida vs Kentucky Head-to-Head

The two programs have had 154 meetings in their history, and the result is 111-43 for the Wildcats. The last matchup was in February this year when Florida won 92-83 at home.

Florida vs Kentucky Predictions

The Kentucky Wildcats are still in play for a double-bye in the SEC Tournament. Kentucky can still finish anywhere from the No. 4 overall seed to the No. 10 overall seed. With a win, Kentucky can finish anywhere from No. 4 to No. 7. With a loss, the Wildcats can finish from No. 8 to No. 10. It places the need for the hosts to set the tone early on. Otherwise, the Gators will continue their remarkable form and assert their status as an elite unit. Our betting pick here is the Gators to cover a 10.5-point spread.

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