Expert prediction
NCAA First Four: Texas vs NC State Preview, Odds, Predictions (March 17)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- The Longhorns make their sixth consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance.
- The Wolfpack last played in the First Four in 2014.
- This marks the seventh all-time matchup between these two squads.
The second contest of the First Four round in the 2026 NCAA Tournament will begin on March 17 with the Texas Longhorns facing the NC State Wolfpack. The former comes out as the slight favorite, presenting a tough matchup between two Power Five teams fighting for a place in the Round of 64.
How to Watch
- When: Tuesday, March 17, 9:15 pm ET
- Where: UD Arena, Dayton, Ohio
- How to Watch: truTV
NCAA Matchup Odds & Lines
| Team | Odds | Spread | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | -106 | -1.5 | O158.5 |
| NC State | -114 | +1.5 | U158.5 |
Game Preview
The Longhorns (18-14) are back in March Madness for the sixth-straight time, marking their 40th overall appearance. Texas ranks 13th nationally in offensive efficiency (125.0) by KenPom (thru games of March 15). The team’s 83.8 ppg is the highest scoring average by Texas since the 1994-95 season. Dailyn Swain claimed SEC Newcomer of the Year honors and is one of five finalists for the Julius Erving Small Forward of the Year Award. Per ESPN Research, Swain is currently the only player in a Major Conference to lead his team in at least five major stat categories: scoring (17.7 ppg), rebounding (7.5 rpg), assists (104), steals (55) and minutes (32.0 mpg).
The Wolfpack (20-13) have made their 30th NCAA appearance and its third in the last four seasons. This is the second time in program history it has played in the First Four in Dayton, last playing in 2014. NC State leads the ACC and ranks 15th in the NCAA in turnover margin (+3.5), is second in the ACC in turnovers forced (12.8 per game) and leads the conference in steals (8.1 per game). For the season, Paul McNeil Jr., Quadir Copeland and Ven-Allen Lubin are all averaging 13.9 points per game, while Darrion Williams averages 13.8. Copeland also leads the ACC in assists, ranks sixth in steals and seventh in assist-to-turnover ratio.
Texas vs NC State Head-to-Head
The two programs have had six meetings in their history, and the result is 4-2 for the Longhorns. The last matchup was in November 2025 when Texas won 102-97 in Maui, Hawai’i.
Texas vs NC State Predictions
This game is a tossup for the right reasons. Dailyn Swain can explode with a big performance at any given moment for Texas, possibly setting the tone to start the game. However, NC State possesses a relentless defense that can throw Swain and other Texas players off their rhythm. Defense will be a huge factor in this duel, and given the Longhorns’ struggles in that department, it would be fair to see NC State take the edge. Our betting pick here is the Wolfpack to cover a 1.5-point spread.
- Free NCAAB pick: NC State Wolfpack +1.5
NCAAB
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