Expert prediction
NCAA First Round: USF vs Louisville Preview, Odds, Predictions (March 19)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- The Bulls are back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2012.
- The Cardinals are dealing with key injuries going into the matchup.
- This marks the 34th all-time meeting between the two programs.
There is a game on upset watch in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament, seeing the American Conference’s USF Bulls duke it out with the ACC’s Louisville Cardinals. The matchup is a tossup with a slight edge towards the Cardinals, but recent injury news have seen their chances of winning diminish to the Bulls’ favor.
How to Watch
- When: Thursday, March 19, 1:30 pm ET
- Where: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, New York
- How to Watch: TNT
NCAA Matchup Odds & Lines
| Team | Odds | Spread | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| USF | -112 | +4.5 | O165 |
| Louisville | -108 | -4.5 | U165 |
Game Preview
The Bulls (25-8) confirmed their place in the NCAA Tournament after taking down Wichita State in the American Tournament. South Florida enters the matchup with one of the nation’s most productive offenses, ranking No. 8 in the NCAA in scoring offense at a program record 87.7 points per game. Izaiyah Nelson has been a major force for South Florida, ranking No. 18 nationally in rebounds per game (9.6) while tying for No. 8 in the country with 18 double-doubles this season.
The Cardinals (23-10) find themselves back in the NCAA Tournament, a testament to their success with Pat Kelsey as their head coach. Louisville is fourth in the nation in three-pointers per game (11.9), fifth in three-point attempts per game (32.7), 16th in scoring margin (13.4), 17th in scoring offense (85.8), 18th in effective field goal percentage (.568) and 20th in assists per game (20). Mikel Brown Jr. is absent from the game as he is dealing with a back injury, leaving a major hole in Louisville’s attack. He has been averaging 18.2 points and 4.7 assists per game this season.
USF vs Louisville Head-to-Head
The two programs have had 33 meetings in their history, and the result is 29-4 for the Cardinals. The last matchup was in February 2014 when Louisville secured an 80-54 win at home.
USF vs Louisville Predictions
Mikel Brown Jr.’s injury comes at a bad time for Louisville, who needs all the scoring punches it can get to have a solid start in March Madness. However, their dips in form throughout the regular season leave them vulnerable to lapses. On top of that, USF has a dynamic attack that can light shots up from downtown while crashing the glass at will. Our betting pick here is the Bulls to cover a 4.5-point spread.
- Free NCAAB pick: USF Bulls +4.5
NCAAB
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