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Expert prediction

NCAA First Round: Penn vs Illinois Preview, Odds, Predictions (March 19)

  • Richard Pereira
  • Mar 19, 2026 at 7:38 PM EDT

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

  • The Quakers make their first NCAA Tournament berth since 2018.
  • The Fighting Illini seek a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.
  • This marks the seventh all-time matchup between the two squads.

The late hours of the NCAA Tournament’s first round will grace several matchups featuring the Penn Quakers and the Illinois Fighting Illini. The latter comes out as the dominant favorite, showing that the Quakers have their work cut out for them throughout one of the more intriguing matchups on Thursday.

How to Watch

  • When: Thursday, March 19, 9:25 pm ET
  • Where: Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville, South Carolina
  • How to Watch: TNT

NCAA Matchup Odds & Lines

TeamOddsSpreadTotals
Penn-110+25.5O151.5
Illinois-110-25.5U151.5

Game Preview

The Quakers (18-11) automatically qualified for the NCAA Tournament after winning the Ivy League Championship, taking down Yale in the final. TJ Power was a unanimous selection as first-team All-Ivy, while senior Ethan Roberts received second-team All-Ivy honors. Power shined in the attack with averages of 16.8 points and 7.9 rebounds per game, while Roberts produces 16.9 points and 3.9 rebounds per contest.

The Fighting Illini (24-8) are coming off a quarterfinal exit in the Big Ten Tournament, losing to Wisconsin in that round. Despite that, their excellent performance in the campaign earned them an At-Large bid to the Big Dance. Keaton Wagler commands the attack with 17.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game. On another note, David Mirkovic looks to be a double-double threat as he is averaging 13.4 points and 7.8 rebounds per contest this season.

Penn vs Illinois Head-to-Head

The two programs have had six meetings in their history, and the result is 6-0 for the Fighting Illini. The last matchup was in November 2001 when Illinois won 78-71 at home.

Penn vs Illinois Predictions

The winner of this game will take on the victors between North Carolina and VCU in the second round. Penn has exceeded expectations by punching their ticket to the Big Dance, playing with house money as they attempt to stun Illinois. However, that will be easier said than done if they can’t keep Keaton Wagler from exploding with a big scoring performance. Our betting pick here is the Fighting Illini to defend a 25.5-point spread.

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