Expert prediction
NCAA First Round: Northern Iowa vs St. John’s Preview, Odds, Predictions (March 20)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- The Panthers make their first NCAA Tournament since 2016.
- The Red Storm win both the Big East regular-season and tournament titles.
- This marks the first all-time matchup between the two squads.
The first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament will enjoy a big showdown between the Northern Iowa Panthers and the St. John’s Red Storm on Sunday night. The latter comes out as the solid favorite, paving the way for a tough duel between two conference champions.
How to Watch
- When: Friday, March 20, 7:10 pm ET
- Where: Viejas Arena, San Diego, California
- How to Watch: CBS
NCAA Matchup Odds & Lines
| Team | Odds | Spread | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Iowa | -115 | +10.5 | O133 |
| St. John’s | -105 | -10.5 | U133 |
Game Preview
The Panthers (23-12) came out on top in the MVC Tournament, taking down the likes of Evansville, Illinois State, Bradley, and UIC to punch their ticket to the Big Dance. UNI leads all of Division I men’s basketball in scoring defense with 61.3 points allowed per game, giving up 70+ points just six times this season. The Panthers are 16-3 when holding teams to 60 or fewer points this year. Northern Iowa also ranks third in Division I in three-point percentage defense, limiting opponents to just 28.5% from beyond the arc. They are led by MVC Tournament Most Outstanding Player Trey Campbell, who is averaging a team-high 13.7 points per game.
Rick Pitino and the Red Storm (28-6) are enjoying an incredible campaign, winning both the regular-season title and conference tournament title in the Big East. They the Red Storm rank in the top-20 in free throws made (18.8) and attempts per game (25.8), battling their way to the charity stripe. SJU’s size has also helped its defense to 4.9 blocks per game, 19th-most in Division I. St. John’s is led by the 2026 Big East Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year in Zuby Ejiofor, who leads the Red Storm with 16.3 points and 7.1 rebounds per game and a league-high 73 total blocked shots. On another note, Bryce Hopkins has notched 13.5 points and 6.2 rebounds per game as he would be a key scorer in this game.
Northern Iowa vs St. John’s Head-to-Head
The two programs are facing each other for the first time in their respective histories.
Northern Iowa vs St. John’s Predictions
The winner of this matchup will take on the victors between Kansas and California Baptist in the second round. Rick Pitino and St. John’s made the second round in last year’s tournament, looking to build on that momentum this time around. Northern Iowa will by busy trying to keep Zuby Ejiofor in check, presenting a chance for other players to break out. Our betting pick here is for the Red Storm to defend a 10.5-point spread.
- Free NCAAB pick: St. John’s Red Storm -10.5
NCAAB
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