2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds, Analysis & Favorites

NFL

• Patrick Mahomes (+175) opens as the betting favorite to capture the AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year award.
• Kyler Murray (+650) follows in the top tier.
• Micah Parsons (+1400) and Malik Nabers (+1600) look like solid darkhorse choices.

It might be a cliché but everybody likes a good, warm comeback story. And imagine one in the NFL football. That’s nothing short of a blast. That’s why the league has NFL Comeback Player of the Year honors, and we present the betting odds for that award.

Award Context

• Defending Winner: Christian McCaffrey (San Francisco 49ers)
• Key Historical Trend: Quarterbacks have dominated this market over the past decade, capturing the award in six of the last eight seasons.

2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Opening Odds

Patrick Mahomes (+175)

Kansas City Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes opens as the consensus favorite to claim CPOY honors entering the 2026 season. Coming off a year where he endured a big injury, Mahomes is still the premier face of the league. If he restores Kansas City’s offense to top-tier efficiency and leads the Chiefs back to deep postseason contention, his baseline narrative and popularity make him a formidable top choice for award voters.

Kyler Murray (+650)

Kyler Murray commands the second spot on the odds board as he aims to revive his career in Minnesota. Murray possesses elite dual-threat playmaking potential, but more importnatnly, he has the background perfect for such award – big talent turned out to be a bust who is trying to get back at the top. If the Vikes take a meaningful step forward in the NFC North behind Murray’s lead, the voters will back the former No.1 pick.

Micah Parsons (+1400)

Green Bay Packers pass rusher Micah Parsons offers a rare defensive angle in a market traditionally dominated by quarterbacks. After navigating an injury-shortened campaign, Parsons returns as one of the most game-disrupting defenders in professional football. If he anchors a turnaround for the Packers defense and generates notable sacks, he could break the quarterback stronghold on this award.

Malik Nabers (+1600)

New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers enters his second season looking to re-establish his status as an elite perimeter weapon. With high-volume targeting and game-breaking speed, Nabers has the statistical ceiling to post massive receiving numbers. With Jaxson Dart as the passer, he could be a great pick.

NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award (CPOY)

The NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award (CPOY) is presented annually by the Associated Press (AP) to the player who demonstrates high-level resilience and performance after overcoming injury, illness, or severe performance setbacks in previous seasons.

It was established in 1972, and ever since, it has put a spotlight on the guys who managed to bounce back.

🏆 Eligibility and Voting Criteria

To qualify for the AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year award, players must fulfill specific league guidelines:

• Eligible Status: Candidates must be active players who faced significant missed time, injury, or severe performance declines in prior regular seasons.
• Regular Season Focus: Voting is conducted immediately following Week 18; postseason play and Super Bowl runs do not factor into the final vote tally.
• Voting Panel: Selected by a nationwide panel of 50 sports media members using a 5-point ranked-choice balloting system.

🏈 Historical Milestones & Record Holders

• Position Dominance: Quarterbacks have claimed the honor in 16 of the last 20 seasons, benefiting from high visibility and direct impact on team win totals.
• Multi-Time Winners: Chad Pennington (2006, 2008) and Joe Burrow (2021, 2024) are among the rare multi-time recipients of the award.
• Non-QB Exceptions: Wide receivers (e.g., Keenan Allen, Jordy Nelson) and running backs (e.g., Christian McCaffrey) periodically claim the award when putting up top-three positional statistics following major joint surgeries or lost seasons.

NFL CPOY Winners