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2026 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds, Analysis & Favorites (Week 9 Update)
- Nikola Velickovic
- Jul 29, 2026 at 7:27 AM EDT
- Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs and Seattle’s WR Jaxson Smith-Njigba lead the OPOY board.
- Chiefs’ RB Kenneth Walker III is +400.
- NFL rushing leader after Week 8, Bijan Robinson, is +750.
Unlike the NFL DPOY odds, the situation for offensive players is completely different. Four contenders stand out from the rest of the competition.
Award Context
- Defending Winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seattle Seahawks)
- Key Historical Trend: Running backs and wide receivers have claimed six consecutive AP OPOY awards, with winners consistently surpassing 1,800 total yards from scrimmage or catching 100+ passes.
2026-27 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Opening Odds
| Player | Position | Team | Opening Odds |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | Detroit Lions | +225 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | Seattle Seahawks | +300 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | Kansas City Chiefs | +400 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | Atlanta Falcons | +750 |
Jahmyr Gibbs +225
Gibbs is the driving force of the Lions’ offense, currently the NFL’s 3rd-ranked unit with 29 points per game. He already has 10 touchdowns, 8 rushing and two receiving, and 773 rushing yards in 157 carries, both second in the league. Gibbs surpassed the 1,000 scrimmage-yard mark with the season only reaching its midpoint. Each time Jared Goff sees trouble coming his way, he gives the ball to Gibbs, who handles the rest.
Jaxson Smith-Njigba +300
Last year’s NFL OPOY winner has realistic chances to win this year’s honors as well. JSN is untouchable among wide receivers, having already caught 985 yards for 9 touchdowns. Both figures rank No. 1 in the NFL. And he doesn’t have a single fumble. With the Seahawks struggling to gain consistency in their run game, Sam Darnold is forced to focus on passing, and in such circumstances, JSN is his first and most reliable target.
Kenneth Walker III +400
The Chiefs received the best possible addition to their squad in Walker III. Kansas City now has a balance in its game, and Patrick Mahomes has massive help in the former Super Bowl champion. Walker III has 8 touchdowns in total and 770 rushing yards, No.3 in that category. Once again, the Chiefs’ odds for a Super Bowl title are good, and that’s mostly due to Walker III. If Andy Reid’s unit takes the top seed in the AFC, this guy is very likely to win the OPOY accolades.
Bijan Robinson +750
This guy continued where he stopped last year. Back then, Robinson had 2,298 total yards from scrimmage. After 2026 NFL Week 8, Bijan has 780 rushing yards, the most in the league, and 203 receiving yards. There aren’t many dual-threat runners in history with his numbers, and if he keeps it up like this, we could see the voters picking him for this award. Especially because many believe he should have won it last year, and not JSN.
You can find all the latest NFL odds here.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award (OPOY)
The NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award (OPOY) is awarded annually by the Associated Press (AP) to the most outstanding offensive performer in professional football.
Unlike the MVP award—which heavily favors quarterbacks—the OPOY routinely honors elite running backs and wide receivers who post historically dominant, league-leading statistical seasons.
🏆 Eligibility and Voting Criteria
The AP NFL OPOY is determined under strict balloting guidelines ahead of the postseason:
- Regular Season Focus: Voting takes place immediately following Week 18; playoff stats carry zero weight in determining the recipient.
- Voting Panel: Decided by a nationwide media panel of 50 sports writers, broadcasters, and football experts.
- Ranked-Choice System: Voters fill out a ranked-choice ballot (1st through 5th place), utilizing a weighted point scale (10-5-3-2-1) to select the winner.
🏈 Historical Milestones & Record Holders
- Most Wins (3): Earl Campbell and Marshall Faulk share the all-time record with 3 AP OPOY awards each.
- Inaugural Winner: Larry Brown (1972, Washington Redskins).
- MVP & OPOY Sweep: Single-season sweeps have occurred 9 times in history, though voters in the modern era frequently separate the MVP (usually a QB) and OPOY (usually a skilled RB/WR).
- Positional Era Shift: Running backs and wide receivers have claimed every OPOY trophy since Patrick Mahomes last won as a QB in 2018.
NFL OPOY Winners
| Season | Player | Position | Team |
| 2025 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Wide Receiver | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2024 | Saquon Barkley | Running Back | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2023 | Christian McCaffrey | Running Back | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2022 | Justin Jefferson | Wide Receiver | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2021 | Cooper Kupp | Wide Receiver | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2020 | Derrick Henry | Running Back | Tennessee Titans |
| 2019 | Michael Thomas | Wide Receiver | New Orleans Saints |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | Quarterback | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2017 | Todd Gurley | Running Back | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan | Quarterback | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2015 | Cam Newton | Quarterback | Carolina Panthers |
| 2014 | DeMarco Murray | Running Back | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | Quarterback | Denver Broncos |
| 2012 | Adrian Peterson | Running Back | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2011 | Drew Brees | Quarterback | New Orleans Saints |
| 2010 | Tom Brady | Quarterback | New England Patriots |
| 2009 | Chris Johnson | Running Back | Tennessee Titans |
| 2008 | Drew Brees | Quarterback | New Orleans Saints |
| 2007 | Tom Brady | Quarterback | New England Patriots |
| 2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson | Running Back | San Diego Chargers |
| 2005 | Shaun Alexander | Running Back | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2004 | Peyton Manning | Quarterback | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2003 | Jamal Lewis | Running Back | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2002 | Priest Holmes | Running Back | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2001 | Marshall Faulk | Running Back | St. Louis Rams |
| 2000 | Marshall Faulk | Running Back | St. Louis Rams |
| 1999 | Marshall Faulk | Running Back | St. Louis Rams |
| 1998 | Terrell Davis | Running Back | Denver Broncos |
| 1997 | Barry Sanders | Running Back | Detroit Lions |
| 1996 | Terrell Davis | Running Back | Denver Broncos |
| 1995 | Brett Favre | Quarterback | Green Bay Packers |
| 1994 | Barry Sanders | Running Back | Detroit Lions |
| 1993 | Jerry Rice | Wide Receiver | San Francisco 49ers |
| 1992 | Steve Young | Quarterback | San Francisco 49ers |
| 1991 | Thurman Thomas | Running Back | Buffalo Bills |
| 1990 | Warren Moon | Quarterback | Houston Oilers |
| 1989 | Joe Montana | Quarterback | San Francisco 49ers |
| 1988 | Roger Craig | Running Back | San Francisco 49ers |
| 1987 | Jerry Rice | Wide Receiver | San Francisco 49ers |
| 1986 | Eric Dickerson | Running Back | Los Angeles Rams |
| 1985 | Marcus Allen | Running Back | Los Angeles Raiders |
| 1984 | Dan Marino | Quarterback | Miami Dolphins |
| 1983 | Joe Theismann | Quarterback | Washington Redskins |
| 1982 | Dan Fouts | Quarterback | San Diego Chargers |
| 1981 | Ken Anderson | Quarterback | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 1980 | Earl Campbell | Running Back | Houston Oilers |
| 1979 | Earl Campbell | Running Back | Houston Oilers |
| 1978 | Earl Campbell | Running Back | Houston Oilers |
| 1977 | Walter Payton | Running Back | Chicago Bears |
| 1976 | Bert Jones | Quarterback | Baltimore Colts |
| 1975 | Fran Tarkenton | Quarterback | Minnesota Vikings |
| 1974 | Ken Stabler | Quarterback | Oakland Raiders |
| 1973 | O. J. Simpson | Running Back | Buffalo Bills |
| 1972 | Larry Brown | Running Back | Washington Redskins |
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