NFL: Offensive Player of the Year 2026-27 Odds, Analysis, Predictions

NFL

• Jahmyr Gibbs opens as the OPOY betting favorite at +700.
• Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson (+850) and Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase (+1000) hold high chances as well.
• Running backs and wide receivers have won the past 6 OPOY awards.

Award Context

• Defending Winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seattle Seahawks)
• Key Historical Trend: Running backs and wide receivers have claimed six consecutive AP OPOY awards, with winners consistently surpassing 1,800 total yards from scrimmage or catching 100+ passes.

2026-27 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Opening Odds

Jahmyr Gibbs (+700)

The Detroit Lions enter the season with Jahmyr Gibbs positioned as the focal engine of their top-tier offense. Gibbs combines home-run speed with elite receiving ability out of the backfield, generating superb touch-to-yardage efficiency. Operating behind one of the league’s best offensive lines guarantees volume of touch opportunities inside the red zone. That and the fact that he’s an explosive scoring threat are the primary reasons he holds the best NFL OPOY odds heading into the campaign.

Bijan Robinson (+850)

Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson enters his third pro season as a true bell-cow back with massive dual-threat usage. Possessing fantastic contact balance and receiver-grade route running, Robinson commands a high percentage of team touches in the Falcons’ dynamic scheme. If Atlanta manages to reach the playoffs (which it should), Robinson’s sheer scrimmage volume makes his odds a premier choice for bettors targeting league-leading yardage.

Ja’Marr Chase (+1000)

Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase remains one of the most unstoppable downfield threats in football. Catching passes from Joe Burrow, Chase presents immense touchdown potential and someone who will move the chains down the field constantly.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+1200)

Meanwhile, defending OPOY winner Jaxon Smith-Njigba looks to build on his breakout campaign with the Seattle Seahawks. If Smith-Njigba maintains his dominant target share, his odds offer enticing value for anyone searching for a repeat winner. He already developed a superb connection with Sam Darnold that provided 1,793 receiving yards and 10 TD catches last season.

NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award (OPOY)

The NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award (OPOY) is awarded annually by the Associated Press (AP) to the most outstanding offensive performer in professional football.

Unlike the MVP award—which heavily favors quarterbacks—the OPOY routinely honors elite running backs and wide receivers who post historically dominant, league-leading statistical seasons.

🏆 Eligibility and Voting Criteria

The AP NFL OPOY is determined under strict balloting guidelines ahead of the postseason:

• Regular Season Focus: Voting takes place immediately following Week 18; playoff stats carry zero weight in determining the recipient.
• Voting Panel: Decided by a nationwide media panel of 50 sports writers, broadcasters, and football experts.
• Ranked-Choice System: Voters fill out a ranked-choice ballot (1st through 5th place), utilizing a weighted point scale (10-5-3-2-1) to select the winner.

🏈 Historical Milestones & Record Holders

• Most Wins (3): Earl Campbell and Marshall Faulk share the all-time record with 3 AP OPOY awards each.
• Inaugural Winner: Larry Brown (1972, Washington Redskins).
• MVP & OPOY Sweep: Single-season sweeps have occurred 9 times in history, though voters in the modern era frequently separate the MVP (usually a QB) and OPOY (usually a skilled RB/WR).
• Positional Era Shift: Running backs and wide receivers have claimed every OPOY trophy since Patrick Mahomes last won as a QB in 2018.

NFL OPOY Winners