Expert prediction
UFC 295 Preview: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall Prediction, Odds, and Picks (Nov 11)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- Sergei Pavlovich has had a full camp preparing to be the backup fighter for the Jones vs. Stipe fight.
- Tom Aspinall agreed to fight at UFC 295 on a two-week notice after Jones got injured.
- Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall are the two male fighters who land the most strikes in the UFC.
Sergei Pavlovich (18-1) vs. Tom Aspinall (13-3) is the co-main event of UFC 295. The two heavyweights are fighting for the interim title on Saturday, November 11, which wasn’t the original plan of Dana White and other UFC promoters.
Originally, Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic were supposed to fight for the UFC Heavyweight title but after Jones got injured, the UFC had to come up with a new plan.
Sergei Pavlovich was meant to be the backup fighter for the Jones vs. Stipe fight, but the UFC decided to scrap the title bout and instead go with an interim fight. Pavlovich got himself a new opponent – Tom Aspinall – who’s coming to Madison Square Garden on two weeks’ notice.
How to Watch
- When: Saturday, November 11, 2023, at 10:00 p.m ET
- Where: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
- How to Watch: PPV
Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | |
| Tom Aspinall |
Fight Preview
Our Pavlovich vs. Aspinall prediction is that the UFC 295 co-main event won’t last for the full 25 minutes. Instead, one of them will finish the other one.
There are several reasons why we think that, starting with the fact that these two heavyweights like finishing their fights early.
In his entire professional career which started back in 2014, Pavlovich has only three times heard the final bell. Sure, that’s impressive, but wait until you learn about Aspinall – none of his 16 pro fights went the distance.
Further, neither Pavlovich nor Aspinall has stayed in the UFC Octagon for more than two rounds. In his most recent fight, the Russian finished Curtis Blaydes by technical knockout after 3:08, while Aspinall’s last fight saw him beat Marcin Tybura by the same method after 73 seconds.
Speaking of KOs and TKO, those are the preferred finish methods of both Aspinall and Pavlovich. Actually, these guys are incredible strikers who land more significant strikes than any other male UFC fighter. Pavlovich is top of the list with 8.72, while Aspinall is second with 7.65.
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall Prediction
Pavlovich vs. Aspinall is going to be a striking duel, which we’re almost certain is going to end within the first two rounds. But which heavyweight will KO the other one? We think it’s going to be Pavlovich.
READ ALSO: UFC 295 Preview: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira Prediction, Odds, and Picks (Nov 11)
First of all, he’s had a full camp, preparing for the role of the Jones vs. Stipe backup fighter. Secondly, he’s at least as good a striker as Aspinall, who also has a much longer reach than the Englishman. Pavlovich’s arms are six inches longer than those of Aspinall, so he should be able to prevent him from unleashing his full power.
Free Pick:
MMA
More Predictions
UFC Vegas 123 Predictions: Moicano vs Nolan Picks, Odds and Best Bet
Best bet: Tom Nolan moneyline (-120) Bet UFC Vegas 123 at BetOnline Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan headline UFC Vegas 123 this Saturday in a lightweight matchup with plenty on the line. Moicano is fighting to stay relevant in the division, while Nolan is chasing a breakthrough win and a place in the rankings. You […]
UFC 332: Full Main Card Picks, Odds & Props (Oct 3)
It’s UFC 332 week at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City. A vacant women’s flyweight title is on the line, along with several high-stakes main card matchups. Here is your full breakdown, plus expert UFC picks, odds, and prop bets for Saturday’s event. How to Watch UFC 332 Main Card Preview Main Event: Natalia […]
UFC: Silva vs. Delgado Preview, Odds, Picks (Sep 12)
Delgado steps into his first UFC main event on short notice following Yair Rodríguez’s injury withdrawal. He is a massive underdog against Jean Silva, though Silva prepared for a completely different rival. Here is are more MMA Odds. How to Watch Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado Odds Fighter Odds Silva -425 Delgado +325 Fight Preview […]
UFC Paris: Full Main Card Picks, Odds & Props
The UFC returns to the Accor Arena for its fifth annual trip to Paris. The card features 14 fights, but we are focusing on the main card, headlined by lightweight fireworks and top French talent. Here are the full betting breakdowns, UFC Paris odds, and top picks for the main card lineup. How to Watch […]
UFC Shanghai Predictions, Odds & Full Fight Card Picks
It’s UFC Shanghai on the menu, with several high-stakes matchups on the main card. We are here to deliver some top-notch UFC picks, with props and plenty of other valuable information. How to Watch UFC Shanghai Main Card Preview Main Event: Umar Nurmagomedov (20-1) vs. Song Yadong (23-9-1) Fighter Odds Nurmagomedov -530 Yadong +375 Co-Main […]