Expert prediction
UFC 317: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira Preview, Odds, Prediction (Jun 28)
- Annie Adkins
- Jun 23, 2025 at 10:44 AM EDT
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira UFC 317 odds are heavily in favor of “El Matador.”
- Topuria is a former Featherweight champ who’s set his eyes on the vacant Lightweight title.
- Oliveira used to be a 155lb champ for almost 12 months, some three years ago.
Topuria vs. Oliveira odds suggest that the former 145lb champ will get ahold of the Lightweight title at UFC 317 in Vegas on Saturday, June 28.
“El Matador” is priced at -500, the main reason being that he’s 16-0 overall. But he needs to stay humble and respect his next opponent. Otherwise, he might get finished – “Do Bronxs” is the UFC record holder for the most finishes in history.
How to Watch
- Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada
- When: Saturday, June 28, 9 pm ET
- How to Watch: PPV
Topuria vs. Oliveira Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | -500 |
| Charles Oliveira | +375 |
Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira Preview
“El Matador” is finally getting his shot at the Lightweight crown, not by chance, but because Islam Makhachev left it behind to chase welterweight gold. And according to UFC 317 odds, he’s gonna get win the belt.
The Georgian-Spanish wrecking machine is 16-0, with wins that speak louder than his trash talk. He’s the guy who KO’d Volkanovski and Holloway, two legends who’d never been finished like that before.
“El Matador” throws nearly 5 significant strikes per minute, which is one of the highest numbers in the division. As if that wasn’t enough, he’s also an elite wrestler/grappler. The proof of this is that he’s got 8 submission wins and lands over 2 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Across from him? Charles “Do Bronxs” Oliveira, the UFC’s all-time finish king with 31 finishes in 35 wins, and a black belt who submits people in ways that make BJJ instructors take notes.
READ ALSO: UFC 317: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France Preview, Odds, Prediction (Jun 28)
But the clock’s ticking; he’s pushing 36, and his last four outings include losses to Makhachev and Tsarukyan. That said, he’s no gatekeeper. The guy still managed to beat Beneil Dariush two years ago and went five rounds with Michael Chandler, after which he won by decision.
Topuria vs. Oliveira Prediction
Ilia’s rise is real, but this isn’t featherweight anymore. We don’t see him walking through Oliveira like he did Volk. That said, “Do Bronx” doesn’t respond well to pressure, and Topuria brings it from the opening bell. Expect a back-and-forth early, but over five rounds, we think “El Matador” has an edge. That said, our top pick for the UFC 317 headliner is Topuria by decision.
Free Pick:
- Ilia Topuria by Decision
MMA
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