Expert prediction
UFC: Blachowicz vs. Stirling Preview, Odds, Predictions (Aug 1)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- Blachowicz vs. Stirling odds open with the former champion as a -165 favorite.
- Stirling jumped in instead of Bogdan Guskov, who went to face Ankalaev in Abu Dhabi.
- Blachowicz also had an offer to fight Ankalaev, yet he turned it down.
Blachowicz is after another shot at the UFC light heavyweight belt, while Stirling looks to catapult himself into the division’s elite and earn himself a big-time fight.
Here are more UFC previews and picks.
How to Watch
- When: Saturday, August 1, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
- Where: Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia
- How to Watch: Paramount+
Błachowicz vs. Stirling Odds
Fight Preview
Jan Blachowicz (29-11-2) returns to action in the Balkans following a chaotic shuffle to his summer plans. He was scheduled to have a rematch with Bogdan Guskov, yet Blachowicz saw his opponent re-routed to Abu Dhabi to face Magomed Ankalaev on short notice.
This might be a problem for the former champ, who prepared for a completely different style. His recent results are not that good at all, as Blachowicz failed to win in the last 4 bouts. Two were draws against Ankalaev and Guskov, and two defeats, to Ulber and a controversial split decision against Pereira. Still, UFC Belgrade odds consider him a solid favorite in this bout.
Navajo Stirling (10-0) steps into the absolute biggest opportunity of his combat sports career on three weeks’ notice. The 28-year-old Kiwi has compiled a perfect record, most recently delivering a not-so-confident second-round TKO over Ion Cutelaba at UFC Vegas 119.
Coming off a quick six-week turnaround, Stirling brings a long 79-inch reach, fluid kickboxing combinations, and sharp perimeter distance control. However, he showed some flaws against Cutelaba, who was his first big-time rival so far. There are still plenty of doubts surrounding this fella.
Blachowicz vs. Stirling Predictions
Stirling’s youth, kickboxing volume, and length will pose legitimate threats early on, particularly if Blachowicz takes time to adjust to a new opponent profile on short notice. But even with all that, the Pole looks significantly tougher and has more experience. Sure, the age gap suggests that Stirling should have more juice, but we saw him lose pace against Cutelaba early on, and his win wasn’t confident at all. That’s why we pick Jan to win.
- Free UFC Picks: Jan Blachowicz
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