Expert prediction
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simón Predictions, Fight Card, and Odds (Apr 29)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- UFC Fight Night 223 brings us six main card fights on Saturday.
- Song Yadong vs Ricky Simón is the main event of the evening.
UFC Fight Night 223 a.k.a. UFC on ESPN+ 81 or UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simón is taking place on Saturday, April 29 at UFC Apex in Vegas. The bantamweight fight between Song Yadong and Ricky Simón headlines the event, while there are another five fights on the main card. We’re now going to preview each of those, sharing our top UFC Fight Night 223 picks along the way.
Schedule and How to Watch
- Where: UFC Apex, Vegas, Nevada
- When: Saturday, April 29, 2023, at 10 p.m ET
- How to Watch: ESPN/ESPN+
UFC Fight Night 223 Predictions
Song Yadong vs Ricky Simón
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Song Yadong | |
| Ricky Simón |
UFC Fight Night 223 odds suggest this is going to be one very close fight. We agree – we think this is going to be a real show, lasting for a full 25 minutes. Both Song and Simón have lost only two fights inside the distance so far, and we don’t think that will change this Saturday.
Both fighters are great strikers. Song lands 4.55 significant strikes per minute, while Simón’s average is 3.04. Song is better striking-wise, but his opponent tends to land more takedowns (6.55 TDs per 15 minutes). We think that might be crucial for the outcome of Saturday’s fight. If Simón manages to pin Song down for long enough, he’s going to win the judges’ affection.
Prediction:
Caio Borralho vs Michał Oleksiejczuk
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | |
| Michał Oleksiejczuk |
Caio Borralho’s UFC Fight Night 223 odds suggest he’s going to have an easy job in the co-main event. If you’re wondering why his odds are so short, it’s because he’s 13-1-1, with 10 wins in a row. Three of those happened in the UFC, each by decision.
His opponent prefers finishing his fights early, but we don’t think he’s going to pull it off against Borralho. Instead, his opponent is going to tire him out and get himself a win by decision.
Prediction:
Rodolfo Vieira vs Cody Brundage
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Rodolfo Vieira | |
| Cody Brundage |
Rodolfo Vieira is a grappling expert who’s got four world titles in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Knowing this, it’s no surprise that seven of his eight MMA wins happened by submission. What’s peculiar, however, is that one of his two losses happened by this method. It happened against Anthony Hernandez in 2021.
However, Hernandez is a fine grappler/wrestler, who’s much better on the floor than Vieira’s next opponent. That said, we don’t think he’s going to have any problems beating Cody Brundage by submission.
Prediction:
Julian Erosa vs Fernando Padilla
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Julian Erosa | |
| Fernando Padilla |
Julian Erosa is a UFC veteran who’s been fighting under the banner of this promotion since 2020. So far, he’s fought seven UFC bouts. His next opponent has zero experience with the UFC. In fact, Fernando Padilla is making his UFC debut on Saturday.
Judging by the UFC Fight Night 223 betting odds, Erosa is going to win. However, we think that Padilla has the skillset needed to stage an upset. His strongest weapon is grappling, which is why we think he’s going to beat Erosa by submission.
Prediction:
Marcos Rogério de Lima vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | |
| Waldo Cortes-Acosta |
The only heavyweight clash on the main card is Marcos Rogério de Lima vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Both fighters have fists of steel, finishing most of their fights by KO/TKO. Oddsmakers think it’s de Lima who’s going to win on Saturday, but we have to disagree.
Cortes-Acosta is 9-0 in his professional career, with a couple of impressive wins over the last couple of years, including those against Jared Vanderaa and Chase Sherman.
Prediction:
Joshua Quinlan vs Trey Waters
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Joshua Quinlan | |
| Trey Waters |
Joshua Quinlan is 6-0 in his professional career, and UFC odds suggest he’s going to continue winning. This is kind of surprising, considering that his opponent only has a slightly worse record. Trey Waters is 7-1, with his only loss happening to Gabriel Bonfim in Dana White’s Contender Series.
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Losing to Bonfim isn’t something to feel too bad about, especially considering that Waters bounced back in the next fight. On April 14, he defeated Jalin Fuller in the main event of LFA 156 by KO.
Prediction:
MMA
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