Expert prediction
UFC Mexico: Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg Preview, Odds, Prediction
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg is the main event of UFC Mexico.
- Moreno is an ex two-time champ; Erceg is a former challenger.
- Moreno vs. Erceg odds favor the Mexican fighter to win.
UFC on ESPN: Moreno vs. Erceg a.k.a. UFC on ESPN 64 or UFC Mexico is on the program on Saturday, March 29, 2025. The main event is a flyweight clash between former two-time champion Brandon Moreno and former challenger Steve Erceg.
UFC London odds favor Moreno who’s fighting in front of his crowd in Mexico City. However, Erceg mustn’t be underestimated as he’s super-motivated to put on a good show after two losses in a row.
How to Watch
- Where: Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico
- When: Saturday, March 29, 10 pm ET
- How to Watch: ESPN+
Moreno vs. Erceg Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | -185 |
| Steve Erceg | +160 |
Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg Preview
Brandon Moreno is the -185 favorite at UFC Mexico City, and we think his odds could have been even shorter. He’s a former two-time flyweight champ (22-8-2), who just snapped a two-fight skid with a win over Amir Albazi.
His last two losses – to Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval – happened by a split decision. What’s interesting is that this guy’s never been finished in his entire career.
Moreno has finished 16 opponents, with 50% of his wins coming via submission, which is evidence that he’s one of the most dangerous grapplers in the UFC Flyweight Division.
Combine that with his Muay Thai background and you’ll understand that he’s a complete fighter. Fighting in front of a home crowd on March 29 only adds to his edge.
Given all this, his odds seem generous. But then again, Erceg has nothing to lose, which is what makes him dangerous. The Aussie fighter is the underdog but has the skill set to make this interesting.
He went 12-1 before a title shot against Pantoja. Though he lost by unanimous decision, it was a valuable experience. However, in his next fight, we saw him lose by a first-round TKO to Kai Kara-France.
Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg Prediction
Brandon Moreno is our pick, but we don’t think he’s going to have an easy job on March 29. In fact, our prediction is that the fight will go the distance, after which the Mexican will win by a decision (possibly a split decision).
Free Pick:
- Brandon Moreno by Decision
MMA
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