Expert prediction
UFC Nashville: Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim Preview, Odds, Prediction (Jul 12)
- Annie Adkins
- Jun 30, 2025 at 8:37 AM EDT
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim is the co-main event of UFC Nashville.
- Thompson vs. Bonfim odds favor the Brazilian fighter.
Our Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim prediction is that the fight will end before the final bell. But who will finish who? Will it be the kickboxing maestro “Wonderboy” or will “Marretinha” get his 14th win by submission? To see our top pick for the UFC Nashville co-main, just keep on reading this preview.
How to Watch
- Where: Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee
- When: Saturday, July 12, 9 pm ET
- How to Watch: ESPN
Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | +300 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | -400 |
Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim Preview
Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson is back in the Octagon at 42, an age where most welterweights have long retired. In fact, he’s the oldest fighter in the UFC Welterweight Top 15 Rankings.
His movement is still sharp, but his last two outings ended badly – he was submitted by Shavkat Rakhmonov and knocked out by Joaquin Buckley. Now he’s looking to stop the skid against Gabriel Bonfim, but the bad news is that UFC Nashville odds suggest he won’t do it.
The thing is that his opponent is a dangerous 27-year-old finisher with a 94% finish rate. Bonfim might not be as great a striker as “Wonderboy” but he’s levels above him in terms of grappling.
READ ALSO: UFC Nashville: Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira Preview, Odds, Prediction (Jul 12)
Thirteen of his 16 wins have come by submission, and that’s a major problem for Thompson, who’s always struggled when fights hit the mat. If Bonfim gets him down, it could be over quickly.
Thompson vs. Bonfim Prediction
“Wonderboy” is a UFC legend, but he’s past his prime. You know who’s currently in his prime? Gabriel Bonfim. Our prediction is that he’s gonna win this fight, possibly with an early submission.
Free Pick:
- Gabriel Bonfim by Submission
MMA
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