Expert prediction
UFC on ABC 5: Emmett vs. Topuria Predictions, Fight Card, and Odds (Jun 24)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- Can Josh Emmett derail the Ilia Topuria hype train in the UFC Jacksonville main event?
- Amanda Ribas coming to Florida as a -175 favorite against Maycee Barber in the co-main event.
- Sedriques Dumas ready to upset the odds in the fight against Cody Brundage.
The Ultimate Fighting Championship is coming to Jacksonville this weekend. On Saturday, June 24, an event called UFC on ABC 5 (or UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria) will take place at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena. This is going to be the sixth time that the UFC is holding an event in Jacksonville, and same as all the previous ones, this one too is guaranteed to please MMA fans.
It’s not just because of the headliner bout between Josh Emmett and Ilia Topuria which is bound to be a real barnburner but also because of the other four main card events. They’re all great matchups as you’ll learn by reading this UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria prediction piece.
Schedule and How to Watch
- Where: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, Florida
- When: Saturday, June 24, 2023, at 10 p.m ET
- How to Watch: ABC
UFC on ABC 5 Predictions
Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | |
| Ilia Topuria |
Josh Emmett (18-3) is a former interim title challenger who’s been fighting professionally since 2011. He’s got some really impressive wins in his portfolio, including TKO wins over Christos Giagos and Mirsad Bektic, and decision wins over Shane Burgos and Calvin Kattar.
This guy’s got a background in wrestling, but since joining the UFC in 2016, his strongest weapon has been striking. When it comes to his weaknesses, well, he doesn’t really have any. He did, though, lose to Yair Rodriguez by submission in his most recent fight, which came as a surprise to everyone. It was Emmett’s first loss by this method and only his second defeat inside the distance.
Knowing how good his fighting pedigree is, you might be surprised to see that Emmett’s odds are +240 at BetUS and other sportsbooks. It’s because of the hype train that Ilia Topuria’s been riding on. The 26-year-old is 13-0 in his professional career, with five wins in the UFC.
The toughest opponent he’s faced so far is Bryce Mitchell, a wrestling/grappling genius, whom Topuria beat by submission in round 2 last December. It was his 12th win inside the distance. Actually, this guy’s won 12 of his 13 fights inside the first 10 minutes.
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That said, we really don’t know if he’s got the gas tank to fight with Emmett for a full five rounds. Still, considering that he’s 12 years Emmett’s junior, we must assume that he does. So, even if he doesn’t finish his opponent in the UFC on ABC 5 headliner, he should be able to win by points.
Prediction:
Amanda Ribas vs. Maycee Barber
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Amanda Ribas | |
| Maycee Barber |
It’s no surprise Amanda Ribas is seen as the favorite. In fact, her UFC on ABC 5 odds of -175 are longer than expected. It’s just that she simply is a better fighter than Maycee Barber. Ribas is much more well-rounded than Barber, who’s mostly about striking.
Meanwhile, Ribas is not only great striking-wise, but she’s also great when it comes to wrestling and grappling. She’s got an 88% takedown defense (not that she’s gonna need it against Barber) and lands 2.16 TDs per 15 minutes.
She also has a much better UFC portfolio than Barber, with wins over such elite fighters as Mackenzie Dern, Paige VanZant, and Viviane Araujo. Barber does seem to be on a good run – with four wins in a row – but all of those happened by decision. In fact, two of those were very controversial split-decision wins (vs. Miranda Maverick and Andrea Lee), which many believe she lost.
Prediction:
Cody Brundage vs. Sedriques Dumas
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Cody Brundage | |
| Sedriques Dumas |
Sedriques Dumas (7-1) was originally supposed to fight Punahele Soriano, but he now has a new opponent for the UFC Jacksonville fight. It’s Cody Brundage (8-4), who’s a similar fighter to Soriano in the sense that he too is a fantastic wrestler.
That said, getting a new opponent shouldn’t mess up Dumas’s plans, at least not too much. The Dana White’s Contender Series Alumnus will probably try to utilize his long limbs to keep his opponent at a distance. However, if Brundage gets to him, Dumas is in trouble.
His UFC stats prove our point – his TD defense percentage in this promotion is zero – but the Florida native does have some background in wrestling. Further, he looked horrible in his last fight, in which Josh Fremd took him down to the floor twice before finally finishing him with a guillotine choke.
Hopefully, he’s learned his lesson and has spent some time in the gym working on TD defense over the last couple of months. If he manages to up his wrestling level, we could see him upsetting the odds on Saturday.
Prediction:
David Onama vs. Gabriel Santos
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| David Onama | |
| Gabriel Santos |
When the early UFC Jacksonville odds were released, David Onama (10-2) was the favorite, but now he’s a +190 underdog. Bettors seem to think Gabriel Santos (10-1) will win thanks to his incredible takedowns.
This guy averages five TDs per 15 minutes, boasting a 40% submission-to-win percentage. He also has experience with Muay Thai which should help him do well against Onama if their fight turns into a striking duel. Either way, we think the now-favorite should be able to get his first win since coming to the UFC from LFA.
Prediction:
Brendan Allen vs. Bruno Silva
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Brendan Allen | |
| Bruno Silva |
Brendan Allen is 21-5 with four wins in a row, two of which got him the Performance of the Night bonus. He’s a former light heavyweight fighter who can outwrestle almost anyone in the middleweight division, including Bruno Silva.
In fact, the only way we can see Silva winning on Saturday is by KO/TKO. The Brazilian is a great striker with an 86.95% knockout-to-win ratio. The best fighter he’s defeated this way is Brad Tavares (on April 22), but we think Allen is much better than him.
Plus, “All In” is aware of the danger Silva’s strikes present, and he’s probably spent months working on how to deal with this sort of opponent.
Prediction:
MMA
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