Expert prediction
UFC Vegas 106: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales Preview, Odds, Prediction
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales is the main event of UFC Vegas 106.
- Based on UFC Vegas 106 odds, Burns is heading to another loss.
- Morales is the fighter with the shortest odds of everyone fighting on May 17 in Vegas.
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales odds suggest “Durinho” will lose for a fourth time in a row. Bookmakers expect him to get steamrolled by Morales, who’s 17-0 overall with 12 wins by KO/TKO. Will he get another finish this coming Saturday? Keep reading this UFC Vegas 106 preview to see our prediction.
How to Watch
- Where: UFC Apex in Vegas
- When: Saturday, May 17, 10 pm ET
- How to Watch: ESPN+
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | +550 |
| Michael Morales | -800 |
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales Preview
Morales is a huge favorite against Gilbert Burns, with UFC Vegas 106 odds of -800. This makes him the biggest favorite of all the fighters getting inside the Octagon on May 17. It also suggests that Burns could be reaching the end of the road in the UFC.
The 38-year-old Brazilian is on a three-fight skid, and losing another one could force Dana White & Co. to terminate his contract. There’s a caveat, though. All of those three losses happened against elite rivals – Belal Muhammad, Jack Della Maddalena, and Sean Brady.
So, the big question ahead of UFC Vegas 106 is whether Michael Morales is an elite fighter. He’s undefeated at 17-0, with a perfect 5-0 UFC record. He dispatched Neil Magny in under five minutes last August, landing clean power shots with minimal damage taken.
This guy averages 5.42 significant strikes per minute, ranking among the division’s most active strikers (only three welterweights land more).
Morales also has a background in judo, but he won’t need to grapple to win this. Burns is dangerous on the ground, with impressive BJJ credentials (3rd degree black belt), but he’s nowhere near as good as Morales in terms of striking.
The best evidence of this is that in his most recent fight, Burns got beaten up by Brady, who outstruck him 130 to 47.
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales Prediction
UFC Vegas 106 odds favor Morales for a reason. He’s better than Burns in practically everything except grappling. Morales knowns this, which is why he’ll probably try to turn this into a stand-up fight. If it goes that way, we expect him to destroy Burns with strikes and get a TKO win.
Free Pick:
- Michael Morales by KO/TKO
MMA
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