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Expert prediction

Nuggets vs Heat Odds, and Picks (Game 3)

  • Keith McCarthy
  • Jun 5, 2023 at 5:56 PM EDT

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

  • Denver fell at home in Game 2, losing by a score of 111-108.
  • The win by the Heat opened the door for them to win it all.
  • Miami is 1-3 on this season as a whole against the Nuggets.

The Nuggets (66-33) and the Heat (57-45) face off in Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals. Denver lost their first home game of the postseason, and will now need to win in Miami to reclaim their home advantage.


How to Watch

  • ABC

Preview

Denver came up short in Game 2, failing to close things out after leading for much of the first 3 quarters. The loss marked their first at home in the postseason, and only 8th on the season as a whole. Next up, the Nuggets head to Miami, where they’ll have to overcome a much inferior road record to avoid falling behind in the series. Nikola Jokić had another strong day in Game 2, but the rest of the starters need to be better.

The Heat completed a miracle win in Game 2, avoiding dropping down 2-0 in the series. They now hold the ability to win the series just by winning their remaining home games, but would just as easily lose that advantage with a loss in game 3 or 4. Miami got a very balanced set of performances from their starters in Game 2, with 3 players finishing within 2 points of the team high. They need more steady play in Game 3.


Picks

After watching the Heat win in Game 2, I am much less likely to write them off for the remainder of the series. That being said, it took a 4th quarter collapse by the Nuggets to get it done, and Denver still nearly pulled away with it. Miami should have a much better case to win at home than on the road. There’s a good chance they’ll split Games 3 and 4, but after Sunday’s loss, I see Denver bouncing back to win in Game 3.

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