Expert prediction
NCAA First Four: Miami (OH) vs SMU Preview, Odds, Predictions (March 18)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- The Redhawks end a two-decades-long drought of not making the NCAA Tournament.
- The Mustangs return to their first NCAA Tournament since 2017.
- This marks the third all-time meeting between the two programs.
The second half of the NCAA First Four round will conclude when the Miami (OH) Redhawks take on the SMU Mustangs. The Mustangs come out as the solid favorite, paving the way for a great showdown involving the biggest mid-major story in college basketball this season.
How to Watch
- When: Wednesday, March 18, 9:15 pm ET
- Where: UD Arena, Dayton, Ohio
- How to Watch: truTV
NCAA Matchup Odds & Lines
| Team | Odds | Spread | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (OH) | -110 | +7 | O161.5 |
| SMU | -110 | -7 | U161.5 |
Game Preview
Travis Steele The Redhawks (31-1) fended off the debates of being snubbed from the NCAA Tournament but will need a win in the First Four to get to the Round of 64. They won the regular-season title but lost UMass in the quarterfinals, which impacted their place in the brackets. This is Miami’s first appearance in March Madness since 2007. Miami ranks among the top of the nation in multiple areas, being first in field goal percentage (52.4), first in the country in effective field goal percentage (0.612), second in scoring offense (90.7), seventh in scoring margin (15.4), and ninth in three-point percentage (39.2). Peter Suder and Brant Byers lead the attack with 14.6 points and 14.2 points per game, while Eian Elmer is active on the glass with 12.6 points and six rebounds per contest.
The Mustangs (20-13) are in tough form going into the NCAA Tournament, losing five of their last six games. They took down Syracuse before losing to Louisville in the ACC Tournament. SMU is making its 13th appearance in the tournament and first since 2017, being the first at-large selection for the Mustangs since 1993. They are near the top of the ACC in scoring offense (84.2, 2nd ACC, 23rd NCAA), assists (16.9, 3rd ACC, 31st NCAA), field-goal percentage (49.0%, 2nd ACC, 24th NCAA), 3-point percentage (37.4%, 2nd ACC, 24th NCAA) and free-throw percentage (74.1%, 6th ACC). Samet Yigitoglu leads the Mustangs in blocks (1.3, 9th ACC), rebounds (7.9, 8th ACC, 84th NCAA) and offensive rebounds (3.6, 1st ACC, 17th NCAA). Meanwhile, Boopie Miller leads in assists (6.4, 2nd ACC, 15th NCAA) with a 2.45 assist-to-turnover ratio (6th ACC, 81st NCAA) and is second on the team in steals (1.5, 11th ACC).
Miami (OH) vs SMU Head-to-Head
The two programs have had two meetings in their history, and the result is 2-0 for the Mustangs. The last matchup was in December 2003 when SMU secured a 66-55 win.
Miami (OH) vs SMU Predictions
The winner of this game will have a date with Tennessee in the Round of 64. SMU certainly boasts an attack that will cause trouble for the Redhawks’ vulnerable defense. However, the Mustangs will fight back with their own explosive offense, therefore causing trouble to SMU’s leaky defense. It will all come down to the better defensive performance, and it may be Miami (OH) who comes out as the more motivated squad on that side of the ball. Our betting pick here is for the Redhawks to cover a 7-point spread.
- Free NCAAB pick: Miami Redhawks (OH) +7
NCAAB
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