Expert prediction
NCAA First Round: Siena vs Duke Preview, Odds, Predictions (March 19)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- The Saints look to be the third 16-seed in history to stun the 1-seed.
- The Blue Devils coasted to the ACC Championship to go Dancing in March Madness.
- This marks the second all-time matchup between the two squads.
The first round of the NCAA Tournament will progress as the ACC’s Duke Blue Devils take on the MEAC’s Siena Saints. The former stands out as the dominant favorite, presenting the stakes that will be present in this tournament matchup.
How to Watch
- When: Thursday, March 19, 2:50 pm ET
- Where: Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville, South Carolina
- How to Watch: CBS
NCAA Matchup Odds & Lines
| Team | Odds | Spread | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Siena | -113 | +28 | O135.5 |
| Duke | -107 | -28 | U135.5 |
Game Preview
The Saints (23-11) are back in their first NCAA Tournament since 2010, taking down Merrimack to represent the MEAC on the biggest stage. Siena ranks second in the MAAC and 15th nationally for scoring defense, holding opponents to 65.7 points per game. Siena is sixth in the nation in fewest fouls per game (13.7). Gavin Doty tops the Saints with 17.9 points and 7.0 rebounds per game, while distributing 2.2 assists per contest. Justice Shoats is second on the squad with 13.2 points per game, and leads the team in assists (4.4 apg) and steals (1.4 spg).
The No. 1 Blue Devils (32-2) took down Virginia to highlight the ACC as its firm conference champion in the NCAA Tournament. Duke is the only team ranked in the top-four nationally in both offensive efficiency (128.0, 4th) and defensive efficiency (89.1, 2nd) ratings (KenPom). The Blue Devils are second in the nation in scoring margin (+19.1). Duke ranks third in the nation and first in the ACC in scoring defense (63.1 ppg). Cameron Boozer is the nation’s ninth-leading scorer with 22.5 points per game and is tied for fourth in the nation with 19 double-doubles, while topping the ACC in rebounding (10.2 rpg), is 12th in assists (4.2 apg), 14th in steals (1.5 spg) and fourth in field goal percentage (.565).
Siena vs Duke Head-to-Head
The two programs have had one meeting in their history, and the result is 1-0 for the Blue Devils. The last matchup was in November 2015 when Merrimack won 92-74 at home.
Siena vs Duke Predictions
The Siena-Duke winner will advance to face the winner of No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 TCU (Thursday at 12:15 PM) on Saturday in Greenville. Duke has a serious case to make as a national contender, having Cameron Boozer be at the center of their success this season. Siena will be busy trying to keep him in check, while needing to make sure his supporting cast doesn’t boom with big performances. However, the Blue Devils’ undisputed star talent will be too much for the Saints to handle. Our betting pick here is the Blue Devils to defend a 28-point spread.
- Free NCAAB pick: Duke Blue Devils -28
NCAAB
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