Expert prediction
NCAA First Round: North Dakota State vs Michigan State Preview, Odds, Predictions (March 19)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- The Bison represent the Summit after winning the conference title.
- The Spartans make their 28th straight NCAA Tournament appearance.
- This marks the first all-time matchup between the two squads.
One of the more unique games on the March 19 schedule will happen in the East Region’s first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament when the Big Ten’s Michigan State Spartans duel with the Summit League’s North Dakota State Bison. The Spartans stand out as a dominant favorite, showing how the Bison have their work cut out of them in the tournament matchup.
How to Watch
- When: Thursday, March 19, 4:05 pm ET
- Where: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, New York
- How to Watch: TNT
NCAA Matchup Odds & Lines
| Team | Odds | Spread | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota State | -107 | +16 | O144 |
| Michigan State | -113 | -16 | U144 |
Game Preview
The Bison (27-7) shined at the top of the Summit League after beating in-state rivals North Dakota in the final round of the conference tournament. NDSU is No. 31 in the NCAA for turnover margin at +2.9 per game. The Bison are 17th in Division I for fewest fouls committed per game, with an average of 14.7. NDSU ranks 37th nationally for steals per game this year after ranking 352nd last season. NDSU had five players average double-figure scoring in league play: Damari Wheeler-Thomas (13.4), Treyson Anderson (12.7), Trevian Carson (11.9), Noah Feddersen (10.9), and Markhi Strickland (10.4).
The Spartans (25-7) maintain their dominant presence in the NCAA Tournament, punching their ticket for the 28th consecutive year under Tom Izzo. The Spartans are No. 41 nationally in scoring defense (68.4 ppg) and rank No. 13 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. MSU ranks No. 11 nationally, and lead the B1G, in fast break points (16.1 ppg). Jeremy Fears Jr., who leads the team with 32.2 minutes played, leads the team with 15.7 ppg and is handing out 9.2 assists per game, tops in the nation. On another note, Coen Carr is third on the team with 11.6 ppg, third on the team with 5.4 rpg and 1.3 apg.
North Dakota State vs Michigan State Head-to-Head
The two programs are facing each other for the first time in their respective histories.
North Dakota State vs Michigan State Predictions
The winner of Thursday’s game will advance to play the winner of a game between No. 6 seed Louisville and No. 11 seed South Florida on Saturday, March 21. North Dakota State possesses a balanced offense that can see any player deliver a solid performance, while Michigan State possesses elite quality on both sides of the ball. The Spartans stand out as the dominant favorite for a reason, which will push them to the second round of March Madness. Our betting pick here is the Spartans to defend a 16-point spread.
- Free NCAAB pick: Michigan State Spartans -16
NCAAB
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