Expert prediction
NIT First Round: Liberty vs George Mason Preview, Odds, Predictions (March 17)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- The Flames won the CUSA regular-season title, making their second NIT.
- The Patriots make their sixth NIT in program history.
- This marks the 10th all-time matchup between the two squads.
The 2026 NIT will present exciting matchups throughout the tournament as the first round begins on March 17 as the George Mason Patriots host the Liberty Flames. The Patriots stand out as the slight favorite, paving the way for a great showdown between two of the most talented mid-major squads in the country.
How to Watch
- When: Tuesday, March 17, 6 pm ET
- Where: EagleBank Arena, Fairfax, Virginia
- How to Watch: ESPN2
NCAA Matchup Odds & Lines
| Team | Odds | Spread | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | -110 | +4.5 | O144.5 |
| George Mason | -110 | -4.5 | U144.5 |
Game Preview
The Flames (25-7) make the NIT as consolation for missing out on the NCAA Tournament after suffering an early exit in the CUSA Tournament. This is the Flames’ second NIT bid in program history, first appearing in the 2023 NIT. They rank No. 2 in the nation in effective field goal percentage (.612), No. 3 in assist/turnover ratio (1.95), No. 4 in field goal percentage (51.4), No. 4 in three-point percentage (39.8), No. 4 in fewest turnovers per game (8.8) and No. 8 in fewest fouls per game (14.1). Zach Cleveland ranks ninth nationally in assists per game (6.8) and 14th in defensive rebounds per game (6.74).Flames leading scorer Brett Decker Jr. (16.8 ppg) is No. 2 in the country in three-point percentage (48.1), No. 8 in threes per game (3.47) and No. 11 in total threes.
The Patriots (23-9) find themselves back in the NIT for the sixth time in program history. They have now made back-to-back postseasons (NCAA or NIT) for the first time since 2007-09. The Patriots are 12-0 when holding their opponent to under 40% shooting this season. George Mason also is a perfect 15-0 when winning the turnover battle and 11-0 when scoring 80 or more points this season. Kory Mincy and Riley Allenspach garnered All-Atlantic 10 Second Team accolades for their outstanding performances this season. Mincy is averaging 15 points and 4.3 rebounds per game while shooting 47.2 percent (.471 3pt FG) over the past three contests.
Liberty vs George Mason Head-to-Head
The two programs have had nine meetings in their history, and the result is 6-3 for the Patriots. The last matchup was in December 2010 when George Mason won 84-54 on the road.
Liberty vs George Mason Predictions
Liberty shined as one of the best offensive squads in the country, but the limitation in size prevented them from punching their ticket to the NCAA Tournament. That aspect is one that George Mason boasts in spades, having the personnel that would spell plenty of trouble for the Flames if they don’t set the tone early on. Our betting pick here is the Patriots to defend a 4.5-point spread.
- Free NCAAB pick: George Mason Patriots -4.5
NCAAB
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