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Expert prediction

NIT Quarterfinals: Illinois State vs Dayton Preview, Odds, Predictions (March 25)

  • Richard Pereira
  • Mar 24, 2026 at 6:18 PM EDT

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

  • The Redbirds stunned Wake Forest in the Round of 16.
  • The Flyers took down UNC Wilmington in the second round.
  • This marks the eighth all-time matchup between the two squads.

The latter portion of the NIT quarterfinals will begin on March 25 with a matchup featuring the Illinois State Redbirds and the Dayton Flyers on Wednesday night. The latter stands tall as the solid favorite, having motivation to win as they try to make a deep tournament run.

How to Watch

  • When: Wednesday, March 25, 7 pm ET
  • Where: UD Arena, Dayton, Ohio
  • How to Watch: ESPN2

NCAA Matchup Odds & Lines

TeamOddsSpreadTotals
Illinois State-105+7.5O139
Dayton-115-7.5U139

Game Preview

The Redbirds (22-12) make their way to the NIT quarterfinals after blowing out Kent State in the first round and stunning Wake Forest in the Round of 16. Johnny Kinziger and Ty Pence each scored 17 points in the second half, Pence’s en route to a career-high 23 points. Kinziger dished out five assists, his 21st game with three or more assists, and his 10th of five or more assists. Pence even recorded a career-high scoring total, reaching double-figure scoring for the 14th time this season, and 20 or more points for the fourth time this year.

The Flyers (25-11) advance to the quarterfinals after besting Bradley in the opening round of the NIT then beating UNC Wilmington in the second round. De’Shayne Montgomery became the fourth Flyer this season to hit the 1,000-point club, scoring a team-high 20 points in the win. The duo of Amaël L’Etang and Bryce Heard added 11 and 10 points, respectively. Jordan Derkack pulled down a game-high 13 rebounds while scoring seven points, and Javon Bennett added nine points and four assists.

Illinois State vs Dayton Head-to-Head

The two programs have had seven meeting in their history, and the result is 4-3 for the Flyers. The last matchup was in December 2013 when Illinois State won 81-75 at home.

Illinois State vs Dayton Predictions

The winner of this quarterfinal matchup will take on the victors between Nevada and Auburn in the semifinals. Johnny Kinziger hopes to keep his hot scoring stretch going for Illinois State while De’Shayne Montgomery leads the attack for Dayton with a spot in the semifinals on the line. Our betting pick here is the Flyers to defend a 7.5-point spread.

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