Expert prediction
UFC Paris Preview: Ciryl Gane vs. Sergey Spivak Prediction, Odds, and Picks (Sep 2)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- Ciryl Gane is a great striker, but a horrible wrestler.
- Sergey Spivak is coming off a first-round submission of Derrick Lewis.
- Gane might be looking for an early win in front of his own crowd in Paris.
Ciryl Gane vs. Sergey Spivak is the headliner bout of UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivak, which is taking place on Saturday, September 2, at Accor Arena in Cyril Gane’s hometown, Paris. With the support of his fans, “Bon Gamin” is hoping to bounce back after a humiliating first-round loss to Jon Jones. Will his plan come to fruition?
How to Watch
- When: Saturday, September 2, 2023, at 3:00 p.m ET
- Where: Accor Arena, Paris, France
- How to Watch: ESPN+
Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ciryl Gane | |
| Sergey Spivak |
Fight Preview
With a background in Muay Thai, Ciryl Gane (11-2) is considered one of the best strikers in the UFC. The numbers confirm it – he’s landing 5.08 significant strikes per minute and each of his two previous wins happened by KO/TKO.
While he’s excellent at striking, his wrestling game is horrible. He got taken down four times by Francis Ngannou in the title fight in 2022, even though “The Predator” was without a single TD in his UFC portfolio before that.
Further, in the fight with Jon Jones, he got taken down twice, and then “Bones” finished him with a guillotine choke. All that happened in the first round.
Gane is probably aware that wrestling is his Achilles heel, but so is his next opponent Sergey Spivak (16-3). “Polar Bear” is a great wrestler who defeated Derrick Lewis by submission in his most recent fight, which earned him the Performance of the Night bonus. Should this worry Gane?
Ciryl Gane vs. Sergey Spivak Prediction
Ciryl Gane last fought six months ago, and we saw him do horrible wrestling-wise. The big question is whether six months was enough for him to improve his TD defense. We can’t say for certain, but we suspect that he might not even get in a situation in which he has to defend against takedowns.
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Boosted by the home crowd support, he’s likely to go for an early knockout. He’s done it before, and we think he can do it again.
Free Pick:
MMA
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