Expert prediction
NFL Prop Picks: AFC Championship Game: Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens (Jan 28)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- The Chiefs defeated the Bills in the last round.
- The Ravens overcame the Texans last time out.
The Kansas City Chiefs travel to the Baltimore Ravens for this year’s AFC Championship game. The Chiefs are the defending champions having defeated the Eagles in 38-35 Superbowl 57, whilst the Ravens last reached the biggest stage in 2013 when they beat the 49ers 34-31. This matchup features some of the biggest stars in the NFL and as such we’ve scoured the prop betting markets to find some of the most lucrative opportunities.
Prop Picks
| Gus Edwards Over 40.5 RushingYards |
Despite only picking up 40 yards on 10 carries against the Texans, Edwards has regularly hit the over for this line during the regular season. In fact there were only 6 occasions this season where he failed to do so, making this a great bet against a Chiefs team that is susceptible to the run.
| Rashee Rice 8+ Receptions |
Rice emerged as the primary receiver for Patrick Mahomes over the closing stages of the season, and between weeks 11 and 17 he averaged almost 9 targets per game. The Baltimore secondary will have their work cut out keeping Travis Kelce quiet, so I expect Rice to play a big part once again.
| Most Rushing Yards – Isiah Pacheco |
Isiah Pacheco finished the regular season with the most rushing yards of any player on display in this game, with Lamar Jackson 104 yards behind him in 2nd place. Against the Bills Pacheco saw 15 carries for 97 yards and he should see an even higher workload in this one.
Parlay
| Travis Kelce 6+ Receptions, 65+ Receiving Yards and 1+ Touchdowns |
Against the Bills we saw the classic Mahomes/Kelce connection that had been missing for large parts of the season. Kelce saw 6 targets, catching 5 of them for 75 yards and two touchdowns, a similar performance here could see this great value bet land.
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