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Expert prediction

French Open: Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz Preview, Odds, Head to Head, Picks (Jun 3)

  • Nikola Velickovic
  • Jun 2, 2025 at 4:14 AM EDT

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

  • Paul vs. Alcaraz odds set Carlitos as a huge favorite at -9000.
  • Tommy Paul beat Popyrin in the previous round, 3-0.
  • Alcaraz leads in H2H matches against Paul 4-2.

The two guys met at the Olympics in Paris last year, where Alcaraz won 2-0 without any problems. Carlos has won three matches in a row against Tommy Paul and is now seeking another victory.

How to Watch

  • When: Tuesday, June 3, not before 5 am ET
  • Where: Roland Garros, Paris, France
  • How to Watch: Tennis Channel

Paul vs. Alcaraz Odds & Lines

PlayerOddsGames
Tommy Paul+75032.5
Carlos Alcaraz-90032.5

Match Preview

Tommy Paul had a rough start in Paris, but the American was superb in the previous round, trashing Alex Popyrin in straight sets, all ending 6-3. The key point is that he spent under 2 hours on the court, which was necessary following his previous events.

Paul was better than Moller in the first round, 1-3, then Fucsovics 2-3, and Kren Khachanov, whom he eliminated 2-3. Therefore, we need to note that he faced tough rivals and challenges in the opening stages.

Carlitos had some trouble with Shelton. He lost a set, yet won in the end, just like we predicted in our preview. It appears that Alcaraz plays just enough to win, and we still haven’t seen him at 100%.

On the other hand, this might be his maximum because we don’t know his physical shape at the moment. Three hours and 22 minutes against Shelton surely will take a toll on him, but this could be what he needed to shake up and elevate his game.

Paul vs. Alcaraz Head to Head

The result after 6 H2H matches is 4-2 in favor of Carlos Alcaraz, who has beaten Paul in the last three meetings.

Paul vs. Alcaraz Predictions

Something tells us that Alcaraz won’t take his time, as he did in the previous matches, but will go out furiously to break Paul early on and close this event in straight sets. It’s simply Alcaraz’s response after a couple of sluggish matches. The one against Shelton was a wake-up call.

  • Free tennis picks: Alcaraz 3-0

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