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Expert prediction

American Pharoah Stakes Picks, Odds, and Preview (Oct 4)

  • Alex Dudley
  • Oct 2, 2025 at 7:03 AM EDT

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

One of the most important juvenile races on the U.S. schedule is set for Santa Anita this weekend, as a field of six runners will line up in the G1 American Pharoah Stakes. Important points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby will be up for grabs, while the race also serves as a prep for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. You can find the odds and picks here.


Event Information

  • When: Saturday, October 4, 2025. 5:00 PM ET
  • Where: Santa Anita, California
  • How To Watch: FanDuel TV

American Pharoah Stakes Odds

HorseOdds
Desert Gate+120
Kristofferson+225
Civil Liberty+800
Intrepido+800
Plutarch+900
Balboa+2000

Latest odds taken from an offshore sportsbooks, and correct as of 10/02/25.


American Pharoah Stakes Recent Winners

YearWinning Horse
2024Citizen Bull
2023Muth
2022Cave Rock
2021Corniche
2020Get Her Number

ALSO SEE: Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Picks, Odds, and Preview (Oct 5)


Race Preview

The G1 American Pharoah Stakes has been a standout date in the diary for juveniles throughout history, with memorable winners including American Pharoah, Bolt d’Oro, and Nyquist. The field will compete across a distance of 1 1/16 miles on the dirt at Santa Anita, with the victor securing their spot in the Juvenile at next month’s Breeders’ Cup.

It is hard to dismiss Bob Baffert’s record in this race, with the trainer having won the last four editions of the American Pharoah Stakes. Desert Gate will be one of four in the race for Baffert this year, and the two-year-old has looked incredibly progressive after winning two from three career starts. He was last seen finishing a close second to Brant in the G1 Del Mar Futurity.

Intrepido could also be an interesting angle this weekend. The Jeff Mullins runner was an excellent winner over a mile at Del Mar in August, beating Plutarch, who once again re-opposes this weekend.

Civil Liberty is a very interesting contender from the Doug O’Neill yard, but the two-year-old has form to find on Desert Gate. He was last seen finishing third, and three lengths behind his re-opposing rival. However, the step up in distance should be beneficial to his chances.


American Pharoah Stakes Picks

Baffert likely holds the key to this race, but his unexposed Kristofferson could be the value angle. The progressive two-year-old was an excellent winner over six furlongs at Del Mar last month, beating Mr A. P. by a length. Further improvement is expected from this son of Nyquist now up in distance.

Free Pick:

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