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Expert prediction

PGA Championship: 3 Longshot Picks

  • Alex Dudley
  • May 12, 2026 at 6:33 AM EDT

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

The eyes of the golfing world will be on Aronimink Golf Club this weekend, as the second major of 2026 is staged in Pennsylvania.

Scottie Scheffler heads the betting for the PGA Championship, but the trends will be against the American as only four players in history have retained the title.

Meanwhile, Rory McIlroy is also among the leading contenders, despite having failed to make an impression at the major since winning the championship in 2014. Therefore, who are 3 longshot picks worth considering for the PGA Championship this weekend?

PGA Championship Longshots

Patrick Reed (+8500)

Patrick Reed was one of the most popular picks from a value perspective before The Masters last month, and he still finished in a credible T12. However, he is largely overlooked in the betting for the PGA Championship, despite the fact that the course at Aronimink Golf Club could play to his strengths.

The American has been in excellent form throughout 2026, winning the Hero Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour. His record in majors is also worth considering, having won The Masters in 2018.

Meanwhile, he has shot consistently in the PGA Championship throughout his career, finishing in the top 20 in three of the last six years.

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J.J. Spaun (+7000)

Another American with a previous major title to his name that is among the longshot picks this weekend is J.J. Spaun.

The 35-year-old won the U.S. Open in 2025, and has continued to go under the radar this season, finishing T5 at the Truist Championship, T14 at the Miami Championship, and T25 at the RBC Heritage. Crucially, his performances are improving with every outing, and he could be peaking at just the right time.

Spaun’s response to missing the cut at The Masters has been excellent, and he has performed well without threatening the top of the leaderboard in recent editions of the PGA Championship, including most recently when T37 in 2025. Given his momentum, he is likely to at least achieve a career-best result this weekend.

Tommy Fleetwood (+3300)

American players have dominated the PGA Championship for the last decade, but a European winner of the major is due. Therefore, Tommy Fleetwood could be among the interesting longshot picks at +3300 this weekend.

Fleetwood finished strongly at last weekend’s Truist Championship, shooting two-under in the final round to finish T5. That was a welcome return to the top ten. However, like Spaun, his positive momentum is eye-catching, and he has still made the cut with under par scores in all three appearances since The Masters.

Fleetwood’s consistency in majors should also be considered, having made the cut in 12 of the last 13, including each of the last four at the PGA Championship. 

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