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Expert prediction

2026 World Cup Group D: USA vs Paraguay Preview, Odds and Predictions (June 12)

  • Richard Pereira
  • Jun 12, 2026 at 12:24 PM EDT

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

  • When: Friday, June 12, 2026. 9:00 PM ET
  • Where: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, United States
  • How to Watch: FOX
Match ResultOdds
USA+108
The Draw+231
Paraguay+305

The 2026 World Cup is underway with the first matchup in Group D getting underway in Los Angeles with the USA hosting Paraguay. These two squads will likely be in direct competition for a qualifying spot in the group, meaning that there will be pressure on both nations on MD1.

ALSO SEE: World Cup 2026: Our Experts Share Their World Cup Picks

USA Stats & Team News

The USMNT has a major opportunity to make noise as the main host of the 2026 World Cup, starting their journey with a clash against Paraguay. Despite disappointing results in the 2024 Copa America, Nations League and the Gold Cup, the U.S. looks to show it has learned from its mistakes going into their most important tournament in recent memory

The Americans are proud to say they are loaded up front, seeing Christian Pulisic and Folarin Balogun enter the opener with significant momentum. They have quality strikers in great form alongside Balogun, seeing Haji Wright and Ricardo Pepi stand out as possible super subs in the second half. Their defense will be put to the test as Tyler Adams assists the backline containing Chris Richards, Tim Ream and Mark McKenzie.

Likely Lineup:

(3-4-2-1) Freese (GK); Richards, McKenzie, Ream; Dest, McKennie, Adams, Robinson; Tillman, Pulisic; Balogun

Paraguay Stats & Team News

Paraguay is proud to be back in the World Cup for the first time since 2010, where they made the quarterfinals before losing to eventual champions Spain. However, they will be missing an important player in Julio Enciso, who suffered an injury in the leadup to the tournament. While it doesn’t take him out for the tournament, it will keep him away from the pitch for the opener.

Paraguay boasts a solid defense that will irritate the USMNT at times, presenting the chance of a scoreless game at halftime before opening up in the last 45 minutes. Miguel Almiron looks to be assertive on the attack as one of the star players on offense, hoping to produce goals for his country as they make their return to the biggest stage.

Likely Lineup:

(4-3-3) Gill (GK); Alonso, Alderete, G. Gomez, Caceres; Bobadilla, Cubas; D. Gomez, Mauricio, Sanabria; Almiron

Head-to-Head Stats

  • This is the fifth meeting between USA and Paraguay.
  • The most recent encounter ended in a 2-1 win for the USA last November.
  • This will be the second competitive meeting between the nations, first since the 1930 World Cup.

USA vs. Paraguay World Cup Picks

The USMNT has the edge over Paraguay in all-time matchups, winning four out of five contests. Paraguay will need to have a quality defensive performance while putting U.S. defenders on their heels to score goals. However, the second half might see the U.S. outmatch their opponents significantly as the home crowd will provide a huge boost to their team. It would be safe to believe that the U.S. takes this one by a 2-1 or 3-1 score.

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