Expert prediction
NFL Odds, Predictions: Patriots vs. Bills Week 4 Preview & Picks (Oct 4)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- Patriots vs. Bills odds favor Buffalo at -305.
- The Bills lead the AFC East with a 3-0 record.
- Pats average only 12 points per game, 31st in the NFL.
The way things stand now, the Bills reign in the AFC East, while last year’s division and AFC champs, the Patriots, struggle a lot. Buffalo’s offense is one of the best in the NFL, while the Pats’ looks like the worst.
Check for more NFL Week 4 odds and picks here.
How to Watch
- When: Sunday, October 4, 2026, 1 PM ET
- Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
- How to Watch: CBS
Patriots vs. Bills Odds
Game Preview
The Pats suffered a hammering defeat in Jacksonville against the Jaguars, 35-6. Drake Maye looked terrible, throwing two picks and taking 3 sacks before he was replaced. His NFL MVP odds plummeted hard, and to be honest, we don’t believe he’s a realistic candidate anymore.
New England’s offense delivers only 12 points per game, the 2nd-worst in the NFL. The defense is very good, especially the passing defense, which allows 170 yards per game, No. 3 in the NFL.
Bills’ offense is steaming. It is the best in scoring with 33.7 per game. It produces 401.7 yards from scrimmage, and not only because of Josh Allen. Well, 70% is because of him, but the other 30% is because of James Cook, who already has 346 rushing yards.
Allen has 786 passing yards so far, but he didn’t have any TD passes in the 24-16 win over the Chargers last week. Yet, he ran for two, and Cook added one more, with 154 yards.
Patriots vs. Bills Predictions
Allen will be motivated to bounce back. Additionally, the whole team will be very motivated to push the Pats deeper into chaos and show who is the boss in the division. We expect them to go full speed and roll over New England.
- Free NFL Week 4 picks: Bills -7
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