Expert prediction
NASCAR Championship Race Picks: Can Anyone Stop Kyle Larson at Homestead?
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
Best bet: Ty Gibbs to win (+1400)
Claim Up to $250 Free Bet at BetOnlineThe final race of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season is set for Sunday, with three drivers still in contention for the Drivers’ Championship. Everything will be decided at Homestead-Miami Speedway, as Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin fight for the ultimate honor in NASCAR. Here are the latest odds and our NASCAR Championship Race picks.
Sunday, Nov 8 · 3:00 PM ET · Homestead-Miami Speedway, Florida · NBC
NASCAR Championship Race Odds (BetOnline)
| Driver | Odds to Win |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +400 |
| Denny Hamlin | +550 |
| Ryan Blaney | +550 |
| Christopher Bell | +600 |
| Tyler Reddick | +650 |
| Chase Briscoe | +700 |
| William Byron | +800 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1400 |
| Joey Logano | +1600 |
| Bubba Wallace | +1800 |
| Chase Elliott | +1800 |
| The field | +2500 and bigger |
Larson is the +400 favorite to win the race, but with the title almost in his pocket, he may not need to go all out for the checkered flag. That makes his price shorter than it should be, and it opens up value further down the board.
NASCAR Championship Race Preview
Larson on the Brink of a Third Title
The 36th and final race of the 2026 Cup Series season will decide the Drivers’ Championship, with the field covering 400.5 miles over 267 laps at Homestead-Miami.
All eyes are on Kyle Larson as he bids to become a three-time Cup Series champion. Larson holds a commanding 67-point lead over his rivals, and thanks to his tiebreaker advantage he needs just nine points to wrap up the title, which means it could be settled as early as Stage 1.
That leaves Bell and Hamlin needing minor miracles. Winning the race won’t be enough for either of them. Bell needs to win and collect at least 14 stage points, while Hamlin needs to win and earn at least 17, and both need Larson to come up short on points, which looks extremely unlikely.
Homestead hasn’t been kind to the challengers either. Larson has won two of the last four Cup races at Homestead-Miami, and he has finished inside the top 10 in all but one of the nine Chase races this season.
Form Guide
Chase Briscoe was the latest driver to fall out of the title fight after finishing only 14th in last weekend’s Xfinity 500. William Byron won that race and is in reliable form, with top-10 finishes in six of his last eight starts.
Homestead-Miami Speedway Recent Winners
| Year | Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Kyle Larson |
| 2024 | Tyler Reddick |
| 2023 | Christopher Bell |
| 2022 | Kyle Larson |
| 2021 | William Byron |
NASCAR Championship Race Picks
Everything is set up for Larson to clinch a third Drivers’ Championship on Sunday, but that’s exactly why he may not be the man to back to win the race. With only nine points needed, Larson can afford to race conservatively and protect his title rather than push for the win, and at +400, the price doesn’t reflect that.
That opens the door for Ty Gibbs. He was an excellent third in the Xfinity 500 and is already a two-time Cup Series winner in 2026, so he has the speed and the form to end the season in Victory Lane. At +1400, he’s our pick to win the NASCAR Championship Race.
- Best bet: Ty Gibbs to win (+1400)
Where to Bet on the NASCAR Championship Race
With a title on the line and a full field chasing the final win of the season, there’s plenty to bet on at Homestead, from the race winner to top-five finishes and driver matchups. All of the sportsbooks below accept US players and offer NASCAR odds, plus a welcome bonus for new players. BetOnline is our top pick, with up to $250 in free bets and no rollover for new customers.
Sportsbook ratings
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