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Expert prediction

Stephen F. Austin vs Incarnate Word Preview, Odds, Predictions (March 2)

  • Richard Pereira
  • Mar 2, 2026 at 2:59 PM EST

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

  • The Lumberjacks seek the Southland regular-season title.
  • The Cardinals have lost four of their last six conference matchups.
  • This marks the 18th all-time matchup between the two Southland squads.

There are intriguing matchups under the radar on March 2, seeing the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks take on the Incarnate Word Cardinals. The visitors come out as the solid favorite, needing this win on the road to fully secure the regular-season title.

How to Watch

  • When: Monday, March 2, 7:30 pm ET
  • Where: McDermott Center, San Antonio, Texas
  • How to Watch: ESPN+

NCAA Matchup Odds & Lines

TeamOddsSpreadTotals
Stephen F. Austin-105-8.5O143.5
Incarnate Word-115+8.5U143.5

Game Preview

The Lumberjacks (26-4, 19-2 Southland) possess one of the best records in the country, rolling with 14 wins in their last 15 games as they seek a firm bid for the NCAA Tournament this season. They have the best scoring defense in the league, allowing just 65.3 points per game to opponents. Keon Thompson is coming off another Southland Player of the Week Award, the fifth time this season. He averaged 24.5 points in the latest wins over East Texas A&M and UTRGV. He shot 50.0% (17-for-34) from the floor and averaged 4.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 2.5 steals per game.

The Cardinals (12-18, 7-14 Southland) are in the bottom half of the conference standings, losing four of their last six games. They are 16th in the country and first in the conference in free throws attempted, averaging 25.7 free throw trips per game this season. Davion Bailey is the league’s leader in scoring average (18.5), FGA (428), three-point attempts (249), three-pointers per game (3.10) and total three-pointers made (90), and ranks second in points (536). Meanwhile, Tahj Staveskie holds the second-highest scoring average in the SLC at 17.4 ppg and he ranks second in the league in minutes per game with 35:19, while Bailey leads with 35:02.

Stephen F. Austin vs Incarnate Word Head-to-Head

The two programs have had 17 meetings in their history, and the result is 14-3 for the Lumberjacks. The last matchup was in January this year when Stephen F. Austin won 56-46 on the road.

Stephen F. Austin vs Incarnate Word Predictions

There’s plenty at stake for Stephen F. Austin in this game. A win completely grants them the regular-season title outright. A loss would have share it with McNeese if the Cowboys take care of their game against Nicholls. Despite being the hosts, Incarnate Word will have its hands full trying to keep up with one of the most potent squads in the country, especially when it comes to putting points on the board. Our betting pick here is the Lumberjacks to cover a 8.5-point spread.

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