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Expert prediction

NFL Week 1: Bills vs. Texans Preview, Odds, Predictions (Sep 13)

  • Nikola Velickovic
  • Sep 4, 2026 at 5:27 PM EDT

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

  • Bills vs. Texans odds favor Buffalo at -110.
  • Texans had the second-best scoring defense last year, 17.4 ppg.
  • Josh Allen won the NFL MVP last year, while James Cook led the league in rushing yards.

The MVP comes to Texas, as Josh Allen and the Bills come to test Houston’s defense.

Check more NFL odds here.

How to Watch

  • When: Sunday, September 13, 2026, 1:00 PM ET (7:00 PM CEST)
  • Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
  • How to Watch: CBS

Bills vs. Texans Week 1 Odds

TeamMoneylineSpreadTotals
Bills-120-1.544.5
Texans+100+1.544.5

Game Preview

Josh Allen will be under pressure right away. James Cook will be as well. These two offensive superstars are about to face one of the toughest defenses in the NFL, if not the toughest.

Bills’ defense will be different from before. New defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard decided to switch back to a 3-4 base. That could bring plenty of positives. At least they aren’t scouted as they were in the past.

Houston didn’t have any need to change anything in its defense. Last year it was the second-best in allowing points, with only 17.2 per game. Will Anderson is among the top 10 players in the NFL, and there are plenty of his teammates on defense who are elite at their respective positions.

The Texans’ biggest problem is their QB. We saw Stroud posting 2 touchdown passes and 5 picks in two games. His passer rating was 51.8, and that says it all. His performance against the Patriots brought plenty of doubts.

Bills vs. Texans Head to Head

Houston leads the all-time series, 8-5. The last meeting was in November 2025, when Texans beat Buffalo in Houston, 23-19.

Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans Predictions

Stroud will need time to regain his confidence, because last year’s ending was pretty stressful for him. This, and the fact that the Bills changed their defense, is the only reason why we take Buffalo to win here. Also, the Bills can endure high-scoring games, while the Texans can’t.

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