Expert prediction
Monday Night Football Pick: Bills vs Vikings Prediction and Odds for Week 9
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
Best bet: Bills -3 (now -121)
Total pick: Under 46.5 (now 46)
Claim Up to $250 Free Bet at BetOnlineWeek 9 closes out with the biggest game of the week, as two 6-1 teams meet on Monday Night Football. The Buffalo Bills head to Minneapolis after a 36-10 win over the Ravens, while the Minnesota Vikings suffered their first defeat of the season, a 19-15 loss in Detroit. Buffalo is a 3-point road favorite, with the total at 46.
You can find the latest NFL odds for every game this week, but here’s why I’m backing the Bills to cover and the under, and how you can bet on Bills vs Vikings.
Update, Nov 3: Buffalo is still -3, but the price has moved from -110 to -121, a sign the money is coming in on the Bills. The total has dropped from 46.5 to 46. We’re sticking with both picks, graded at the numbers we published (Bills -3 at -110, Under 46.5). The moneyline is now live, with the Bills at -180. Odds from BetOnline as of Nov 3.
Monday, Nov 9 · 8:15 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis · ESPN
Bills vs Vikings Betting Odds (BetOnline)
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | -180 | -3 (-121) | Over 46 (-110) |
| Minnesota Vikings | +157 | +3 (+100) | Under 46 (-110) |
Odds as of Nov 3. Our picks were made at Bills -3 (-110) and Under 46.5.
Game Preview
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo was slow out of the blocks against the Ravens in Week 8, but once the Bills got going, it turned into a blowout, and they rolled to a 36-10 win. Josh Allen went 21 of 34 for 289 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, and Dalton Kincaid made the big plays, with four catches for 86 yards and a score. James Cook, who has shaken off his injury concerns, carried the ball 21 times for 80 yards and a touchdown.
At 6-1, the Bills are right where they expected to be. But Monday night will be their toughest test in weeks, against a Vikings defense that has been one of the best in the league.
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota’s unbeaten run came to an end in Detroit, where the Vikings lost 19-15 despite holding Jared Goff to 176 passing yards. The defense did its job through the air, but Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 153 yards and a touchdown, and that proved to be the difference.
The bigger worry is on offense. Kyler Murray went 17 of 29 for 210 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, and he was also the Vikings’ leading rusher with just 35 yards on four carries. Jordan Addison led the receivers with three catches for 66 yards. Minnesota might be regretting letting J.J. McCarthy go, with Murray looking uninspiring, and Carson Wentz isn’t someone who would inspire much confidence as a starter either.
Bills vs Vikings Predictions
This is a really tough game for Buffalo and Josh Allen. The Vikings’ defense is as good as any the Bills will face this season, and Allen may not be able to win this one through the air alone. But Detroit gave us the blueprint last week. The Lions leaned on Gibbs and the run game, and Minnesota had no answer. If Buffalo commits to Cook in the same way, the Bills have the tools to control this game.
I’m backing the Bills at -3. Three is the most important number in NFL betting, so a Buffalo win by a field goal would be a push, and you’d get your stake back. But Minnesota’s offense managed just 15 points in Detroit and couldn’t get anything going on the ground, and I think Buffalo has enough to win this by more than a field goal. The move from -110 to -121 tells you the market agrees, and if this ticks up to -3.5, anyone who got in early at -3 will be glad they did.
If you’d rather not worry about the spread, the moneyline is now up, with the Bills at -180 and the Vikings at +157. That implies roughly a 64% chance of a Buffalo win, and it’s a solid way to back the Bills on their own or as a parlay leg.
I’m also going under. The Vikings’ defense is good enough to keep Buffalo in check for long spells, and with Murray struggling to move the ball, Minnesota doesn’t have the offense to drag this into a shootout. If Buffalo follows Detroit’s lead and leans on the run, the clock keeps moving, and that only helps the under. I took it at 46.5, and the drop to 46 suggests the market sees it the same way.
Bills vs Vikings Picks
- Best bet: Bills -3 (now -121)
- Bills vs Vikings moneyline pick: Bills (-180)
- Bills vs Vikings pick against the spread: Bills -3 (now -121)
- Bills vs Vikings over/under pick: Under 46.5 (now 46)
Where to Bet on Bills vs Vikings
Monday Night Football gets the whole country watching, and with two 6-1 teams going head to head, this is the game of the week. All of the sportsbooks below accept US players and offer spreads, moneylines, totals and player props on Bills vs Vikings, plus a welcome bonus for new players. BetOnline is our top pick, with up to $250 in free bets and no rollover for new customers.
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