Expert prediction
NFL Odds, Predictions: Colts vs. Commanders Week 4 Preview & Picks (Oct 4)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- Colts vs. Commanders odds find the Indianapolis team as a 3-point favorite.
- Commanders have one of the league’s worst pass and one of the best run defenses.
- Colts allow the most yards per game in the NFL, 417.3.
Both of these teams won last weekend and are coming to London in high spirits. Commanders won’t have their starting QB, Jayden Daniels, but Marcus Mariota comes off a 3-TD game against the Super Bowl champs, the Seahawks.
Check for more NFL Week 4 odds and picks here.
How to Watch
- When: Sunday, October 4, 2026, 9:30 AM ET
- Where: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, United Kingdom
- How to Watch: NFL Network, ESPD
Colts vs. Commanders Odds
Game Preview
We knew the Colts would defeat the Texans, and we predicted it last week. And not because of the offense, but the defense, which was good enough to pressure Stroud and deliver a good performance. DeForest Buckner and Adetomiwa Adebawore recorded 1.5 sacks, and they should make a difference against the Commanders as well.
Jonathan Taylor again had a mediocre performance with only 68 yards on 23 carries. He now faces one of the NFL’s best run defenses, which allows just 82 yards per game. Taylor is one of the top favorites for the NFL OPOY award, and if he needs to shine, this is the time.
However, the Commanders’ pass defense is terrible, allowing 280.3 yards per game, the 2nd worst in the league. They had some luck against the Seahawks because Sam Darnold wasn’t fully fit, yet he threw the ball 45 times.
On the other hand, the second-string QB, Marcus Mariota, was very rational, throwing for 183 yards and 3 TDs. Though we need to add that his pass completion rate was bad, 19-for-31. And that’s something you need to remember.
Colts vs. Commanders Predictions
Taylor vs. Commanders run defense will be the key matchup here. If one of the league’s best RBs records 90+ yards, the Colts should win. Also, Buckner and the rest of Indianapolis’ pass-rush defense look more than capable of disrupting Mariota on a neutral field, and that’s another reason to bet on the Colts.
- Free NFL Week 4 Picks: Colts
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