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Expert prediction

NFL Odds, Predictions: Packers vs. Buccaneers Week 4 Preview & Picks (Oct 4)

  • Nikola Velickovic
  • Sep 28, 2026 at 6:36 AM EDT

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

  • Packers vs. Buccaneers odds favor Green Bay by 3.5 points.
  • Baker Mayfield dislocated his thumb.
  • The Packers have the worst running offense in the league, averaging a miserable 48.7 yards per game.

The battle of two Bays features many injuries and missing stars. Tampa Bay’s QB Baker Mayfield might miss this one because of his thumb injury. Meanwhile, Green Bay can’t count on Josh Jacobs or Micah Parsons.

You can view the full display of NFL Week 4 lines and odds here.

Packers vs. Buccaneers Week 4 Odds

TeamMoneylineSpreadTotals
Packers-175-3.539.5
Browns+145+3.539.5

Packers vs. Buccaneers Prediction – Packers

Expert NFL Pick:

Things aren’t good for Green Bay. Losing at home to the Falcons, 35-14, is clear evidence that Jordan Love and the boys aren’t in a good place. Love is No.4 on the passing-yards list, with 844 in three games. But that’s because the Packers average 48.7 rushing yards per game, which is, again, a miserable figure. The second-worst, the Broncos, average 81.

Green Bay is our pick here because the Buccaneers might be without Mayfield, who dislocated his thumb on his throwing hand. Even if he plays, and there’s a good chance he won’t, the former No.1 pick wouldn’t be 100%.Check this out now: Tampa Bay’s offense with him records 279.3 yards from the scrimmage. This ranks them 27th in the NFL.

Now imagine what will happen with Mayfield absent, and even with him having his thumb bandaged or whatever. So it’s not Packers’ quality, yet Tampa’s limitation why we bet on the guests to triumph in this event.

  • Mayfield absent (even if plays severely handicaped)
  • Packers pass attack is better than Tampa Bay’s secondary
  • Tampa ranks 27th in the NFL in yards from the scrimmage.

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