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Expert prediction

NFL Week 17: Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Preview, Odds, Picks (Dec 25)

  • Nikola Velickovic
  • Dec 22, 2025 at 5:31 AM EST

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

  • Broncos vs. Chiefs spread heavily favors Denver by 12.5 points.
  • Chiefs are 0-7 ATS in the last 7 events.
  • The Broncos lost last weekend at home vs. Jaguars, 34-20.

Suddenly, the Broncos found themselves in a very difficult situation, needing to win both of their remaining games to stay atop the AFC.

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How to Watch

  • When: Thursday, December 25, 8:15 pm ET
  • Where: Arrowhead, Kansas City, Missouri
  • How to Watch: Prime Video

Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds

TeamMoneylineSpreadTotals
Broncos-900-12.537.5
Chiefs+600+12.537.5

Game Preview

Denver lost at home to the Jaguars and now doesn’t only have the Patriots breathing down their necks but also the Bills, Jags, and the Chargers, against whom they play at home in the final week. So it’s necessary to win this game.

The defense has been severely slowed down these days, with the Broncos allowing 25 or more points in three of the past four games. On the other hand, it’s perfectly understandable for Bo Nix to lose his pace and consistency when he has to deliver repeatedly.

The Chiefs were trashed in Tennessee, 26-9, and not just that, but Andy Reid lost his backup QB, because Gardner Minshew tore his ACL. However, we have to say that the third-string QB, Chris Oladokun, did well upon entering the field. He was 11 for 16 and had no touchdowns or picks, though the O-Line didn’t protect him well, allowing 4 sacks.

The Chiefs’ running game was terrible as usual, having 51 yards on the ground. Isaiah Pacheco had 34 on 8 carries, and the lack of a reliable rusher was the reason why Mahomes got injured in the first place.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Head to Head

In 131 games, the Chiefs have 73 wins, the Broncos 58. This year, Denver won 22-19 at home seven weeks ago.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Predictions

This shouldn’t be tough for the Broncos, because they have a third-string QB across the field, who doesn’t have either the experience or the chemistry with his O-Line. Denver should cover the spread here.

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