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Expert prediction

NFL Week 6: Bills vs. Falcons Preview, Odds, Picks (Oct 13)

  • Nikola Velickovic
  • Oct 7, 2025 at 10:41 AM EDT

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

  • Bills vs. Falcons total is 48.5 points.
  • Falcons’ defense allows 244 total yards per game, No.1 in the NFL.
  • Buffalo Bills have the 3rd-best offense in the league, 30.6 points per game.

The Bills go to Atlanta to meet the Falcons following an unexpected loss at home on Sunday Night Football. The hosts had a week off and are well-rested and prepared for this event.

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How to Watch

  • When: Monday, October 13, 7:15 pm ET
  • Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
  • How to Watch: ESPN

Bills vs. Falcons Odds

TeamMoneylineSpreadTotals
Bills-200-3.548.5
Falcons+170+3.548.5

Game Preview

The Bills were stunned at home by the Patriots, 23-20. They lost fair and square against the team that came to play and fight, suffering the first failure of the year. Josh Allen threw for 253 yards, two touchdowns and one pick. He had a fumble as well. The reigning NFL MVP ran for 53 yards, too.

This team is No. 3 in scoring, averaging 30.6 points per game, and also boasts the second-highest number of rushing yards per game at 154.4. That’s why the Bills stand as one of the main Super Bowl favorites.

The Falcons were better than the Washington Commanders two weeks ago, whom they defeated at home 34-27. QB Michael Penix Jr. had 313 passing yards, for two touchdowns and one pick. Two of the Falcons’ players had 100+ yards: Drake London, 110, and Bijan Robinson, 106. The latter added 75 rushing yards.

Falcons allow the fewest yards per game in the NFL with 244 per game, and only 135 passing yards, also the fewest. Their defense is one of the best in the league, but the offense still struggles heavily.

Bills vs. Falcons Head to Head

Atlanta leads the series 7-6, but the Bills have won the last two events.

Bills vs. Falcons Predictions

Penix Jr. is oscillating, and so is the entire Falcons’ offense. No matter the quality on their defensive side, the Bills will eventually find their groove, which will make the difference in this one. The guests are more experienced, consistent, and balanced, which is the reason to bet on Buffalo’s triumph.

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