Expert prediction
NFL Week 8 Upsets: Falcons, Bears and Ravens Lead the Way
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
Week 7 delivered some pretty big upsets, highlighted by the Falcons stunning the 49ers 29-20 and the Bears dropping the Patriots 30-24. As 2026 NFL Week 8 already kicked off with Green Bay’s 27-19 Thursday night win over Carolina, we move on to Sunday’s games. The current NFL odds offers high-value opportunities for bettors looking to capitalize on market misjudgments and public narrative.
Upset pick 1: Falcons +125
Upset pick 2: Ravens +145
Upset pick 3: Bears +145
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Capturing value in early line movement is gone, but with more information at your disposal, it’s easier to isolate potential upsets. Chicago Bears odds are very tempting, Falcons have their case against the Bucs, as well as Ravens in Buffalo.
Here is a breakdown of the games with the highest probabilities for an upset. Also, here are all the NFL Week 8 predictions.
Falcons (+125) vs. Buccaneers – Tampa Bay’s Oscillations Could Benefit the Falcons
The lines have moved since the opening, though, the Falcons are still underdogs in Tampa Bay. The spread fell from -4.5 to -2.5, and we’re sorry we couldn’t do this article sooner. Why? The Falcons have a fluid attack and look smooth, with one of the most balanced offenses, scoring both through the air and on the ground. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers often oscillate and tend to fail to deliver when needed the most.
Both teams have strong run defenses but rely on their own elite run game (Bucs are No.3 and Falcons No.6 in the NFL), so this situation could lead to a passing overload. In those cases, both Mayfield and Penix Jr. often make mistakes and give the ball away. Yet overall, the Buccaneers have fewer targets downfield than the Falcons, and this team averages the least passing yards per game in the NFL. We know Baker didn’t play, which affected the numbers, but all the above-mentioned suggests Atlanta can still win this one easily.
Baltimore Ravens (+145) at Buffalo Bills – Lamar’s Return Boosts the Ravens Odds
Buffalo sits as a -3 favorite coming off their bye week. On the other side, the Ravens are in a tough spot, with a 4-3 record and a brutal five-day turnaround. But there is some very good news for the Ravens: Lamar Jackson, the two-time NFL MVP, returns.
The matches between the Bills and the Ravens are very interesting and usually tight. The previous three meetings were decided by a field goal or less, and even though Josh Allen and the boys sit as favorites according to current NFL odds, we simply can’t write off the Ravens. Especially with Lamar leading their offense and Derrick Henry, who could play a major role here, facing the Bills’ run defense, which sits only 15th in the league.
Don’t be shy, take +145, or +150 depending on the sportsbook, and bet on the Ravens, because it could easily pay off.
Bears (+145) vs. Seahawks – Chicago’s No.1 Run Offense Could Break the Champions
Let’s face it, Chicago has the potential to go deeeeep into the playoffs. Their offense is very, very nasty, physical, and can endure grueling matches and rough defensive units. Seattle has one such, but the Seahawks tend to struggle to deliver consistency on the offensive side of the ball. The Super Bowl champs rolled over the Chiefs last weekend, 20-3, mainly because they stopped Kenneth Walker III, who had just 36 rushing yards. This put Mahomes in a tough spot, and the Seahawks could handle the Chiefs QB easily.
Chicago has the NFL’s best run offense, with 154.3 rushing yards per game. And it doesn’t depend on one player, but two, if Williams begins to scramble three. This could be a challenge for the Seahawks, who haven’t faced such a rival this season.
The lines moved in the Bears’ direction, with the spread on them falling from +4.5 to +3, which suggests there’s logic to our thinking, and that other bettors see it too.
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| Matchup | Current Spread | Moneyline | Upset Potential |
| Falcons vs. Buccaneers | Falcons +3.5 | ATL +125 | High |
| Ravens at Bills | Ravens +3 | BAL +145 | Medium |
| Bears vs. Seahawks | Bears +3 | CHI +145 | High |
| Lions vs. Vikings | Vikings +3 | MIN +155 | Low |
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