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Expert prediction

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Odds, and Picks (Oct 29)

  • Keith McCarthy
  • Oct 23, 2023 at 8:15 PM EDT

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

  • New England got a much-needed victory over Buffalo, winning it 29-25.
  • The Dolphins struggled against the Eagles, losing 31-17 on Sunday night.
  • These two teams last met in Week 2, in a game the Dolphins won 24-17.

The NFL season is at the halfway point. Let’s preview the upcoming Patriots vs Dolphins matchup. They meet for the 2nd time this year. Miami won the first game on the road, and will aim to win here at home.


How to Watch

  • CBS

Preview

The Patriots bounced back against the Bills, getting the win and improving to 2-5. They still have a long way to go to return to playoff contention, but they at least showed signs of life in the win, after a lackluster past few weeks. Mac Jones hit a new gear on Sunday, completing 25 of 30 passes for 272 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, and a 126.7 passer rating. New England is hoping to see a lot more of that from Mac Jones this year.

Miami had their first offensive disappointment since their loss to the Bills a few weeks ago. In their two defeats to Buffalo and Philadelphia, the Dolphins averaged 18.5 ppg. In their five victories, on the other hand, Miami averaged over 40 points per game. It’s hard to discredit them for road losses to the Bills and Eagles, but a lack of success against playoff-level defenses is definitely something for them to work on.


Prediction

This is seeming like a course correction matchup, with New England likely to regress after a great win and Miami expected to bounce back after a bad loss. It’s also a home game for the Dolphins, who already won in New England back in Week 2. I expect Bill Belichick to build on last week’s momentum to an extent, but ultimately not enough to avoid losing this game. I’ll take the Dolphins to win this game and narrowly cover.

NFL Picks:

  • Dolphins 28, Patriots 17 ()

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