Expert prediction
Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction: Back New England to Win, but Take the Points With Miami
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
Best bet: Patriots moneyline (-400)
Spread pick: Dolphins +7.5
Total pick: Over 44.5
Bet Patriots vs Dolphins at BetUSThe Patriots head to Miami as heavy favorites in this AFC East matchup, but the Dolphins finally have a win on the board after beating the Jets 28-25 in Week 7. New England is coming off a 30-24 loss in Chicago on Thursday Night Football and is just 1-3 on the road this season.
You can see all of our NFL Week 8 expert picks, but here’s why I’m backing the Patriots to win while taking the points with Miami, and how you can bet on Patriots vs. Dolphins.
Sunday, Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium · CBS
Patriots vs Dolphins Betting Odds (BetUS)
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New England Patriots
New England sits at 4-3 after a 30-24 loss to the Bears last Thursday night. The Patriots played well for long stretches, but a Drake Maye interception proved to be the difference and handed Chicago the edge.
The ground game was also a problem, with just 70 rushing yards on the night. Overall, the Patriots have a balanced, varied offense, but they’ve struggled to finish drives. Their red-zone touchdown rate of 53% ranks near the bottom of the league, and that matters when you’re laying 7.5 points.
Miami Dolphins
Miami finally got into the win column in Week 7, beating the Jets 28-25 on the road as an underdog. The run game carried the offense, piling up 156 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
RB Ollie Gordon II led the way with 103 rushing yards and a score, while QB Malik Willis threw for 208 yards and two touchdowns, adding 37 yards and another touchdown on the ground. If the Dolphins can lean on the run again, they have the formula to keep this one closer than the line suggests.
Patriots vs Dolphins Predictions
The Patriots have underachieved on the road this season, going 1-3 away from home. That said, their lone road win came in Buffalo, and their road losses have come against playoff-caliber teams. Miami has momentum after its first win of the season, but on paper, New England is still the better team.
That’s why I’m backing the Patriots to win. At -400, though, the moneyline is better used as a parlay leg than a standalone bet. A shaky red-zone offense on one side and a Dolphins run game that just put up 156 yards on the other make this the kind of game Miami can keep close, so Dolphins +7.5 is the spread play.
With the Patriots scoring 24 in Chicago and Miami putting up 28 against the Jets, both offenses can push this past 44.5.
- Best bet: Patriots moneyline (-400)
- Patriots vs Dolphins spread pick: Dolphins +7.5
- Patriots vs Dolphins over/under pick: Over 44.5
How to Bet on the Patriots vs Dolphins
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