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UEFA Nations League Predictions: Best Bets, Odds & MD4 Picks (Oct 4-6)

  • Alex Dudley
  • Oct 2, 2026 at 4:02 AM EDT

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

The final round of UEFA Nations League matches of the international break are set for Oct 4-6. A clearer picture of the nations that stand an excellent chance of making the quarterfinals will be available following the MD4 encounters, with heavyweight showdowns including Norway’s trip to Portugal and France taking on Belgium. You can find our standout predictions and best Nations League bets here.

UEFA Nations League Best Bets & Top Value Picks

  • Best Pick: Netherlands (vs. Serbia)
  • Best Both Teams to Score (BTTS): France vs. Belgium
  • Best Value Over/Under: Portugal vs. Norway Over 2.5

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Key Fixture Breakdown & Predictions

Portugal vs. Norway Prediction & Odds

Kickoff: Sunday, October 4 | 2:45 PM ET | Estadio do Dragao, Porto

Match Preview

It has been an eventful first couple of weeks in charge of the national team for Jorge Jesus, as the new Portugal head coach has already crossed paths with Cristiano Ronaldo, leading to the legendary star leaving the national team camp early. The manager’s decision was vindicated on Thursday, as Portugal showed excellent attacking quality in a 4-2 win against Denmark.

Norway have failed so far to reach the heights of their World Cup campaign, losing two of their last three matches. Another defeat this Sunday could see them struggling to finish in the top two spots in Group A4. However, Portugal’s wealth of talent, coupled with home-field advantage, make them hard to bet against.

France vs. Belgium Prediction & Odds

Kickoff: Monday, October 5 | 2:45 PM ET | Stade de France, Paris, France

Match Preview

It has been an excellent start to international management for Zinedine Zidane, with France winning back-to-back encounters without conceding. France’s array of attacking stars have caught the eye, although it is notable that they will be without Kylian Mbappe on Monday.

Belgium’s weak defensive record will make them hard to support, as the nation have conceded at least once in five of their previous six. It is also notable that France have won nine of the 12 head-to-head encounters.

Greece vs. Germany Prediction & Odds

Kickoff: Sunday, October 4 | 2:45 PM ET | Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki, Greece

Match Preview

Jurgen Klopp’s reign in charge of Germany finally got off the ground at the third time of asking on Thursday, as the nation recorded a 2-0 win over Serbia. That was a much-needed success to reignite confidence within the squad, as Germany had gone four without a win.

Confidence will be flowing through this Greece side, having beaten Germany on MD2 and avoiding defeat in three straight internationals in Group A2. A draw could be an interesting angle worth exploring based on the current form of the Greeks.

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