Expert prediction
Italian Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti Preview, Odds, Head to Head, Picks (May 16)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- Alcaraz vs. Musetti odds see Alcaraz as the -330 favorite.
- These two met in the Monte Carlo finals, when Alcaraz won 2-1.
- Alcaraz leads 5-1 in H2H against Musetti.
This game promises to be fun because we have two excellent players clashing at the Foro Italico in Rome. Carlos Alcaraz faces the home crowd favorite, Lorenzo Musetti.
Check out: Jannik Sinner vs. Tomy Paul Preview, Odds, Head to Head, Picks (May 16)
How to Watch
- When: Friday, May 16, 7:30 am ET
- Where: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy
- How to Watch: Tennis Channel
Alcaraz vs. Musetti Odds
| Player | Odds | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | -330 | 21.5 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | +230 | 21.5 |
Game Preview
Carlos Alcaraz beat Jack Draper 6-4, 6-4, avenging his defeat to this rival in the semis of the Indian Wells. With this triumph, he locked the No.2 seed at Roland Garros and posted his 13th win in the past 14 events.
Alcaraz had a tough path to the finals, beating Dusan Lajovic and Laslo Djere in the opening two rounds before dropping a set to Karen Khachanov in the fourth round. However, everything got back to normal against Draper.
On the other side, Lorenzo Musetti didn’t lose a single set at the Italian Open. One by one, he would beat Virtanen, Nakashima, Medvedev, and Zverev, though having plenty of problems against the German and spending 2 hours and 15 minutes on the court.
We have to say that Zverev’s first serve was awful, making just 59% of it. This allowed Musetti to be perfect on breakpoint chances, converting all three of them.
Alcaraz vs. Musetti Head to Head
Alcaraz defeated Musetti in Monte Carlo a few weeks ago, 2-1. 3-6, 6-1, 6-0. We saw Carlos’ hurricane after losing the opening set.
Overall, it’s 5-1 for the Spaniard, whose sole loss was in the Miami Open in 2024, on the hard surface.
Alcaraz vs. Musetti Predictions
Carlos looks well right now, and we saw that when he more or less routinely defeated Draper, who plays excellent tennis. Meanwhile, we can’t get rid of the impression that Musetti didn’t dictate the tempo against Zverev, yet used the rival’s mistakes. Because of all this, we pick Carlos Alcaraz to win this event.
- Free Italian Open picks: Carlos Alcaraz wins
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