Expert prediction
US Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Preview, Odds, Predictions (Sep 10)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- Aryna Sabalenka targeting third straight final appearance at the US Open
- Jessica Pegula lost the 2024 US Open final against Sabalenka
- Sabalenka holds a 9-4 head-to-head advantage against Pegula
The semi-final action at the US Open gets underway on September 10, 2026. The tennis betting sites make Aryna Sabalenka the heavy favorite to reach a third straight final when the world number one collides with third seed Jessica Pegula. Find the odds and our Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula picks here.
How to Watch
- When: Thursday, September 10, 2026. TBA
- Where: Arthur Ashe Stadium, New York, USA
- How to Watch: ABC, ESPN
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Odds
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Preview
A rematch of the 2024 US Open final is set for this year’s semi-finals, as Aryna Sabalenka bids to reach a third straight final in New York. The Belarusian superstar was at her very best in the previous round, as she battled back to overcome Linda Noskova in three sets.
Sabalenka’s record at the US Open demands respect, as she has now won 19 straight matches at the Grand Slam. Victory over Noskova also saw Sabalenka become the first woman since Serena Williams to reach six straight semi-finals at the New York major.
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Pegula will have revenge on her mind this week, as she bids to banish the memories of her 2024 US Open final defeat, which remains the American’s only previous appearance in a major final. The U.S. star was excellent in the quarterfinal against Emma Navarro, battling back from a set down to record a victory in a three-set thriller.
Pegula has tons of history with Sabalenka, as the Belarusian beat the American in the semi-final stage 12 months ago. However, the American’s mentality looks stronger in their rematch this year, evident by the fact that no player has claimed as many comeback wins (48) this decade as Pegula.
Head-to-Head Record
Sabalenka holds the head-to-head advantage, having won nine of the previous 13 encounters, ensuring a 69.2% win rate compared to a 30.8% strike rate for Pegula. However, the American will take confidence after winning the only meeting between the WTA stars this calendar year, as Pegula beat Sabalenka 6-4, 6-7, 6-0 at the Berlin Tennis Open.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Picks
Both players will bring fatigue into this semi-final showdown following grueling three-setters in the previous round. However, Sabalenka’s dominance on U.S. soil is hard to dismiss, having bested Pegula in the 2024 final and the 2025 semi-finals. However, a three-set classic should be expected, as each of the last four encounters have gone the distance.
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